Thursday, October 14, 2010

With the World Population Growing by 1 Million Every 4 Days, Can We Really Afford to Mindlessly "Be Fruitful and Multiply"?


Since one of the single biggest contributor to climate change, wars, immigration (voluntary or not, legal or not), and human misery in general appears to be overpopulation, can we really afford to do nothing when the human population increases (births minus deaths) by 1 million EVERY 4 DAYS?  90% of those new people are born in developing countries. Be fruitful and multiply made sense in a time when unless you had about 13 children you could not have confidence one would live to pass on your genes to the next generation, but is ecologically suicidal if obeyed literally today. To apply so rigidly a mandate that made sense to the primitive Mediterranean society that wrote it regardless of changes in infant and child mortality implies a level of denseness that I would rather not blame on a deity. 
In fact, one could argue that a woman who uses birth control and has 3 children later in life today who are much healthier and better nourished than the 13 her great-grandmother had is actually obeying this mandate, but with much greater efficiency (and much lower loss of maternal (and child) life, something generally ignored by those who advocate high birth rates regardless of consequences). Those 3 modern children are much more likely than their grandparents to survive infancy and have children who in turn reproduce successfully.
Ironically, those most rigidly dictating that we obey this ancient command are themselves most likely to violate it. Most women who use birth control do eventually have children of course, whereas a priest (who keeps his vows) has none at all. Celibacy is a far greater threat to the propagation of our species than birth control (although thankfully far more Catholic women use birth control than Catholic men pursue celibacy (which is posing an enormous logistical and manpower problem for the church)). 
Today, the payoff from even a small change in reproductive behavior at the margin can have an enormous, outsized impact on the type of world our children and grandchildren will live in. 
Not only do we need to make the full range of family planning services available to all women who want or need them, financing such programs (unlike tax cuts for the wealthy) will more than pay for themselves. 
It is ironic that the most Catholic country in the world, the place where Catholicism was created, itself has largely ignored the teachings of the Vatican: Italy's population is flat and by some measures declining slightly. Not such good news for retirees dependent on the income of new workers coming on line, but very good news for anyone paying attention. We can respect religious teachings where appropriate (the press in Italy tends to be rather noncritical of the church) but politely ignore them where they are overstepping their credible authority.

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