Thursday, March 21, 2013

Healthcare Reform Remains a Moral Issue That No American Can Ignore

March 21, 2013
In an email exchange with a Catholic attorney friend who sent me a link to a provocative article on www.reason.com, a website that seems devoted to the propagating the ideas of Ayn Rand and pooh-poohing any and all attempts to regulate anything, arguing that "Obamacare" was among other things driving up costs and driving down quality while prompting an exodus of physicians:
The author of the article ("The Obamacare Revolt: Physicians Fight Back Against the Bureaucratization of Health Care: Will it make a difference?" by Jim Epstein, March 13, 2013) deplored "massive government interference in health care."  This is rich since without Medicare and - to a much lesser extent - Medicaid, most physician practices would fold.  As you age, your healthcare expenditures rise, and everyone over 65 in the United States has socialized medicine that pays most of their bills.   Throw in Tricare and all the federal healthcare programs covering the 20% of Americans who work directly or indirectly for the government, and I fail to see how any healthcare entity could survive without this government "interference."
The assertion that "Obamacare, which takes full effect in 2014, will drive up costs and erode quality—and Americans will increasingly seek out alternatives" makes three assumptions that are not supported by the weight of serious analysis.  Several key components of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) improve quality - the medical record not least among them - and having uninterrupted healthcare coverage over your lifetime - something far more possible than ever with the ACA - has been shown in study after study to decrease morbidity and mortality especially for chronic conditions (which consume the lion's share of healthcare spending).   I am not sure what "alternative" exists to going to a physician or a hospital when you are sick unless the author is implying some Americans might sneak across the border à la Sarah Palin to get free healthcare in Canada, which would sort of defeat the points the author made elsewhere.  "Obamacare" as he calls it does not affect the delivery or quality of care as much as it regulates the means by which providers are reimbursed for providing that care and the protections consumers have if they get sick.
I agree in transparency and competition, but this has been provided for decades by Medicare, which publishes all of its rates and provides an effective cap or anchor on doctors who wish to charge more exorbitant rates - the opposite of what the article charges - and managed care, mostly for-profit insurance companies that use Medicare rates as a starting point for fixing reimbursements to doctors and hospitals.
Most doctors complain not about undue interference by the government in the healthcare market but by the extraordinarily intrusive, cumbersome, and micromanaging managed care experiment, one launched at the behest of employers, not patients or providers, to drive down costs a few decades ago.  It failed in that objective, but has created a massive overhead that now requires most physicians offices to hire full time people whose only job is negotiating through the labyrinth of for-profit plans (and Medicare and Medicaid) that are out there.
The ACA is not so much regulation of the healthcare marketplace as of the for profit insurers who have been gouging consumers and underpaying providers and hospitals after first dividing them up into take-it-or-leave-it cartels.  I believe it was improperly sold as healthcare reform when it is more accurately insurance regulation to protect consumers while also ending free-riding in which the young and healthy could take a risk with all of our money by not paying into the risk pool, hoping they could always get government-mandated healthcare from an emergency room and perhaps disappear when it came time to pay the bill.  No longer.
I am not aware of any physician revolt, although a number of older physicians left private practice to retire when managed care came along in the 1990s.
I was a contracted provider with dozens of managed care and insurance plans as well as Medicare and Medicaid.  I found the latter two far less intrusive and easier to deal with.  I understand this has not been everyone's experience, but the central issue that frustrates physicians is the idiocy of having to call a 1-800 to talk to someone reading from a script who has never met your patient and trying to convince them that the treatment you believe in your medical opinion is the best really is (and that they should pay for it).
A truly free market system could never work for medicine since a tiny minority of patients (and you and I will never know whether we will be in that group tomorrow) generate the vast majority of the costs.  Only the super rich could afford the latest treatment for multiple sclerosis or cancer and it is unrealistic and frankly cruel to expect that those who are not wealthy should forgo treatment or die if they do not pass the wallet biopsy.  But again, a truly free market, libertarian solution would be that those who are poor when they get sick or injured die, leaving the lucky and the wealthy to survive (and presumably contribute disproportionately to the gene pool).  This is not the sort of Darwinian society I think any civilized person wants to live in.  I certainly don't which is whatever we can do, however imperfectly, to decrease the 60,000 excess deaths every year in America from lack of health insurance is worth trying.
What President Obama proposed and Congress passed and the Supreme Court validated as constitutional is not perfect - nothing is or will be.  It draws its inspiration from Governor Romney's successful plan in Massachusetts (Massachusetts now enjoys close to universal healthcare coverage without the exploding of costs or collapse of private insurance that his opponents predicted).  It is very similar to Switzerland, where insurance is private but compulsory with state support (usually at the cantonal (state) level for those who cannot afford the premiums).  The Swiss cover everyone and spend far less on healthcare as a percentage of GDP than we do (universal healthcare lowers aggregate healthcare spending for a variety of reasons).  Health insurance is not linked to employment (which I find a major fault of our system, one not currently addressed), so if you become sick and disabled, you don't have to scramble for a new plan or apply for state support.
Healthcare can never be freely traded in my opinion anymore than we can all self insure for our homes or our cars (realistically).  Yes, if we forewent homeowner's insurance and had no fire or loss over 30 years, we might end up ahead, assuming we had the discipline to invest the premiums we would have spent and invest them wisely, but what about the young law school graduate saddled with debt who has a fire in year 2 out of law school?   Insurance works because it exchanges an enormous but unlikely loss for a small but certain loss (the loss of premiums paid into a risk pool).  At any time only a minority of people will draw from the risk pool, but we all benefit from knowing it could be us tomorrow.  Whether private or public is immaterial (although I have a preference for public health insurance plans since they are far more efficient and do not require redistribution of premiums to CEOs and shareholders - all goes to healthcare).  The point is that Dick Cheney's hunting partner could not have bartered his way through his multiple surgeries and rehabilitation no matter how many chickens he owned.  And shopping around for the cheapest surgeon might save a few hundred or even thousand dollars but can a "consumer" who has just been shot really have the information to make the call about the best intersection of price and quality?  He won't find free surgery.  He will be writing a large check in an insurance-free world no matter how much he shops.
My final point is this:  are there attorneys who use this model?  Last time I checked, the average attorney charges a couple multiples of what the average physician does per hour.  The day you guys are willing to barter for providing your professional services is the day I might find those advocating a barter system for physicians credible.  ;)

I was accused of being in perpetual "campaign" mode, to which I penned the following response:
I do not know what you mean by "campaign" mode.  Last time I checked, we won all the relevant campaigns I was involved in.  Healthcare is obviously my career and in many ways this particular area is my passion for professional and moral reasons.  I have seen far too many people forgo treatment or face bankruptcy - losing everything they ever worked for - simply because they got sick.  The United States is alone in the developed world in this respect.  In fact, only in the United States would advocating for a move - however imperfect - toward universal healthcare be controversial.  These are arguments other countries had and settled decades ago, most shortly after World War II, and the right wing of other countries does not attack the idea of insuring children, using economic theory as a smoke screen.  Instead, they argue about how but never whether or why. 
The article you sent me came from a provocative, far right web site apparently founded on the principles of a radical atheist who called Catholicism a cult and believed that compassion toward the least among us was weakness.   Ayn Rand's focus - and the focus of those who follow her - has been on corporate profitability, not patient treatment or welfare.   If you tout such an article, apparently endorsing it, it seems that this is where the "campaign mode" begins. 
I agree with the last pope (and presumably) the current pope, that healthcare is not a luxury or a market commodity to be doled out to the highest bidder, but a universal right.   “Health justice should be among the priorities of governments and international institutions,” Pope Benedict said.  We are all to work toward a "true distributive justice that guarantees to all, on the basis of objective needs, adequate care” and that “Justice requires guaranteed universal access to health care” which is a “commonly accepted as a fundamental human right.”  (As a matter of law, when we signed the International Declaration of Human Rights, our government agreed to the principle that access to healthcare is a universal human right.)
I also agree with Pope John Paul's insistence that the "intervention of governmental authority" on behalf of the defenseless as "an elementary principle of sound political organization" and that "one can only rejoice" that "states set up social welfare systems to assist families … and pension funds for retirees", reflections of a sense of national "responsibility" and "solidarity".
As you are aware, I am in sharp disagreement with many of the metaphysical claims made by the Vatican as well as their positions on reproductive health and gynecology, but I strongly agree with some of their positions, including their objection to the American invasion of Iraq (10 years ago yesterday), the death penalty, and its insistence that healthcare is a "fundamental human right."
Other Christians such as evangelical progressive Jim Wallis I deeply respect agree with my position here.  There is no real separation between my professional commitments to my patients, the moral commitments I have as a citizen to insure that the policies put in place protect the most vulnerable among us, and the politics which are the way we get those policies in place in a democratic society.
I know you are very intelligent and well-schooled.  But you are not a clinician and with all due respect are not in a position to speak for us.  Yes, some physicians are leaving medicine (as they always will) out of frustration for various factors, but blaming this on a law that has not been fully implemented is stretching.   (It has been my experience that people make decisions based on a complex cluster of factors of which they themselves are not always consciously aware and which they are not always willing to disclose.)  The biggest complaints I have heard are about issues I consider ancillary to the core reform aspects of the law (reforms that the right has made no serious effort to counter) such as electronic record requirements (and this, not because it is a bad idea in theory, but because the proliferation of for profit "solution providers" has been gouging doctors while delivering an inferior product, yet another example of where a fractured, for profit marketplace cannot solve a national issue such as healthcare delivery). 
There are some extremely high-earning specialists whose extraordinary income may come down in a rational system.  Most physicians support health care reform, but those in luxury specialties who have for reasons of historical accident enjoyed immense profits from doing the same thing (or less) than the rest of us tend not to. 
Again, I remain baffled not so much that there are people out there who would advocate for the for profit status quo that kills over 45,000 Americans a year and leaves tens of millions without access to healthcare (59.1 million went without health insurance in 2009, for example), but that intelligent people such as yourself would be seduced by these corporate arguments. 
Your criticism of the ACA based on concerns about whether it will continue to cover more Americans and end some of the more egregious insurance practices are well-placed, but what alternative is there at this point?  The status quo is untenable and deeply immoral.
I find it difficult to take of my morality/political/clinician hat and pretend this issue is not as pressing and as heartbreaking as it is.  To me, after the Iraq war and income maldistribution (poverty), healthcare access is probably the defining moral issue of our time and one that I hope we can agree to come together to fix in reality rather than shooting down the good in favor of the perfect.

MV

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Wife of Pi : He's Irrational and He Goes On and On...





Oh, I just love math and science jokes!   I know it's IRRATIONAL but I really do.  The WHOLE lot of them are an INTEGRAL part of what lifts my spirits.  There is a whole SERIES of these jokes, entire SETS of them.  Some don't even really exist - they are IMAGINARY but most are REAL.  They are INFINITELY amusing and a PRIME source of satisfaction. 

And by the way, all you "3.14 is pi day" people, it's not exactly true.  Since pi does not exactly equal 3.14, you should not "celebrate" pi day until 3:49 am and 20.53056 seconds by my back-of-the-envelope calculations, since pi = 3.141592654... and if you work out the hours, minutes, and seconds that .141592654.. of a day equals, that's what you get.)

One more pi observation:  since our calendar system is not really mathematical ("3/14" does not have the same meaning as "314" for example, since it is mixing two numbers that don't have meaning because of adjustments to the number of days in a month (which average but never equal 30.5)).  For those attempting to make some astrological conclusion about people being born on a certain date having similar characteristics, they should at least get the astronomical premise right.  Pi is most meaningful in relation to circles, especially a unit circle which has by definition a circumference of 2*pi.  So if we graphed the number of days of the year as a circle, we would be pi radians around that circle at the exact halfway mark.  Looking at 2013 only (technically we should include and adjust for leap years but for simplicity's sake we can use 365 days), we will hit "pi day" in radian terms on July 2nd at 12 noon exactly.  This also assumes of course that there is something significant astronomically about January 1st, which there isn't.  Using instead December 22, the shortest day of the year in the northern hemisphere as day zero, we get June 22 at noon, the longest day of the year.  That - in radian terms - is our most astronomically significant "pi day."  

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Seeing Jupiter for the First Time



Lucy insisted we go outside the other night to look for shooting stars.  Although I didn't want to - it was cold and I was tired - after a few minutes of pointing out the few things I knew to her (the rest I made up) I decided to get out the telescope Isabella won when she got second place in a school science fair years ago.  After a lot of jiggling to find the right lens and focus it just right, I found Jupiter, and we both spent twenty minutes or so looking at it, trying to hallucinate bands, definitely seeing its 4 moons.   When I was a kid, I remember the first time I saw the planets through my Sears Best telescope and what an awesome experience it is to realize you are looking across such unfathomable distances at something so unfathomably large in real time.  It is a completely different experience than seeing it in a book, as different as spotting a dolphin in the ocean yourself versus seeing a picture of one in National Geographic.  I am glad Lucy had that experience.
Before she went to bed, she insisted I read her something about Jupiter and the next day it must have impressed her so much that she drew a picture of the planet and its moons and the swirling, never-ending storms on its surface with lightning 1,000 times as powerful as that on Earth. 


Lucy's careful schematic of a shooting star which she claims to have seen (unconfirmed, but so what?) as well as Jupiter ("Jepdr") which she knew from school was the largest planet in our system.   She drew a clock like a good scientist to indicate what time she looked at the planet, and drew the moons she saw when she looked through the telescope.   She even drew a compass to indicate North (we were actually looking South but I had just shown her the Northern sky with the Big Dipper and the North Star earlier, so she got them a little mixed up - that's OK!).


 "Jupiter has storms all the time" - yes it does!  I don't think she was trying to anthropomorphize the planet - this was her rendition of the red dot she saw in a photo (unfortunately, my telescope does not have that sort of resolution!).

 This sort of innocent wonder and capacity to be amazed should never be killed in school and I am so grateful that at least for now it hasn't been, only fostered.

Friday, March 8, 2013

The Stock Market rose 2.5 times as much under Democratic presidents as under Republican ones

Presidents and the Stock Market : Annualized % Change in the S&P 500 by President and Party

Anyone who says that Democratic administrations are worse for the stock market or the economy than Republican ones has not actually crunched the numbers.  I have.
Since 1901, the S&P 500** has climbed 9.87% per year on average* when the president had a D after his name.  This is over 2.5 times the average gain of 3.92% when the president was Republican.




Only 5 presidents left office with the S&P 500 lower than when they were inaugurated - 4 were Republican.  
6 out of the bottom 8 presidents by stock market gains or losses during their administrations were Republican.  
President Obama's first term saw a 16.05% annualized rise in the S&P 500, greater than any president since John F. Kennedy.   He statistically tied with Eisenhower.  You have to go back to Calvin Coolidge to find anyone who came close to this stock market rise.  

Some surprises
Who knew that the market - on an annualized basis - performed so well during the short presidencies of John F. Kennedy (D) and Ford (R) , neither of whom is remembered as particularly business friendly.  Ford's record benefited from the economic and political disasters of the Nixon administration; John F. Kennedy's time in office was so tragically short small changes either way in the index could have led to a disproportionate swing when annualized.  
Despite the contempt Republicans shower on President Carter, the market gained a not-too-shabby 6.17% per year, almost the mirror image of Bush II's (R) 6.07% annualized loss.  

Why does it matter?
Perhaps it doesn't, but the Republicans always tell us it does.  They claim to be the party of business and although there are many economic variables one could measure, the stock market is one of the best leading economic indicators out there, discounting all other publicly available data.  Although subject to short term overvaluations and panic selling, over a very long period (112 years here), those fluctuations should average out (unless people are more likely to panic under Republican administrations, which undermines their claim of removing business uncertainty and inspiring "morning in America" economic growth).    


* geometric average as defined by  (ending index level / starting index level) 1/years in office - 1
** I used Shiller's long term data series going back to 1870 as well as Yahoo, and used the month end closes only both for simplicity's sake and to reflect the fact that a president inaugurated March 4, let's say, cannot conceivably do anything meaningful to affect the economy until at least the end of the month - a fairer study would lag the data 6 months

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