Friday, May 27, 2011

Vermont's Single Payer System, Reflections on Massachusetts, and Examples of Government Success


Vermont's Single Payer System 
Some wonderful news (Single payer healthcare: Vermont's gentle revolution | Amy Goodman) out of Vermont, the first state to ban slavery, in 1777, stimulated an online discussion about the role of government.   Someone sent me an article about increased wait times in Massachusetts, which although not a single payer system, was the most vigorous, and by most accounts successful, attempt to get universal healthcare done, as well as an editorial by anti-universal healthcare activist Sally Pipes in 
Investors Business Daily, a fantastic paper for financial raw data, but its editorial page makes the WSJ look like a leftist rag. Usually, the editorials are not just extreme in point of view but factually incorrect and poorly written (the writer of the article uses the term "Obamacare" without quotation marks or explanation as to why she is using a Tea Party epithet). 
This Pipes editorial is more of the same. The article is deeply flawed for a number of reasons. 
First, emergency room care and uncompensated care have risen everywhere as a result of the financial crisis and the fact that millions of Americans everywhere lack health insurance. Without comparable data from other states, 9% is meaningless. What is it in New York or California or Idaho? If ER visits - a proxy for a high number of uninsured - is up 33% in those states but only 9% in Massachusetts, this might be a good thing. 
Second, what is the state of residence of those seeking care in Massachusetts ER's? If someone is in a car accident while driving through the state to get home to New Jersey, how is this an indictment of Massachusetts' plan per se? What was the reason for the visit? In an aging population, all things being equal, you will get more ER visits; have there been demographic shifts that would better account for this increase than lack of health insurance per se? The author does not address any of these questions because she is trying to argue against universal healthcare. I am assuming she has healthcare herself, but does not wish to pay for the healthcare of those less fortunate or more chronically ill than herself. This is America, and we have the right to be materialistic and selfish, but we do not have the right to make bogus arguments based on incomplete or misleading data.
Ms. Pipes is a paid lobbyist against universal healthcare who makes her living writing editorials and books about the evils of the Canadian system and why we should not try anything so foolish here.  Her work recently led a Senator to make an embarrassing gaffe.  According to Factcheck.org
"A spokeswoman said Barrasso made a mistake by referring to an April Forbes opinion piece about the Massachusetts health care law written by Sally Pipes, president of the Pacific Research Institute, a conservative think tank. That article referred only to one state — and had nothing to do with Medicare. It referred to Massachusetts doctors who are refusing to take any new patients, regardless of age. The author cited a statistic from Massachusetts Medical Society surveys that found "56% of physicians [not 57 percent] are not taking on new patients" in that state. But that’s not right. The 56 percent figure refers only to internal medicine doctors, in a 2009 survey."  
    - Factcheck.org

She also failed to cite the $400 million figure for uncompensated care is down from $700 million prior to the implementation of Romney's plan and - most notably - long prior to the current economic crisis.    There are problems with this solution, as will be true with all solutions, but that does not mean we should just give up.  The status quo is simply not acceptable.  We cannot and should not let perfection be the enemy of good enough.


However, the articles presented were not fairly represented.  A quotation from the first one undermined an earlier point about the Massachusetts plan being a "failure:"

The medical society on Monday issued its annual Physician Workforce survey, which was conducted in February and March. More than 23,000 doctors and students are members of MMS, which publishes the New England Journal of Medicine.
Coombs said that despite its problems, Massachusetts has done "an incredible job" with healthcare. Issues such as a shortage of doctors in poorer communities are not unique to the state, she noted.
"It's a success in terms of the number of patients who have seen a doctor in the past few years, but the physician workforce has been strained," Coombs said.
Massachusetts, like much of the nation, has a severe shortage of doctors in primary care - internists and family physicians - because those fields are less lucrative.
"We need more doctors in primary care. There's no getting around that fact," said Coombs."
        - source

So the first article describes the plan as a "success" and attributes problems to a shortage of primary care physicians, a problem that will continue as long as a dermatologist doing "free market" botox injections can make $750,000 a year but a busy primary care physician actually taking care of sick people, many poor, is struggling to make a living and pay her staff.
Also, the headline of the Reuters article refers to one particular of the plan, that for the indigent; please keep in mind that many of these would not have been insured anyway, so their wait times would have been infinite before this plan, which, as I mentioned is not a single player plan (which by definition would not suffer from this problem since all physicians and healthcare providers would have to take it).

Tort Reform Will Not Bring Down Healthcare Costs or Lead to Universal Coverage
Re the tort reform, I support it, but the Bush administration looked long and hard into this issue with an eye toward finding massive potential savings and the most they could find was that about 1% of medical costs might be reduced with meaningful tort reform. 1% of a big number is still a big number and I support tort reform for other reasons but massive cost savings is not one of them. And by the way, universal health insurance would go a long way toward getting rid of most law suits between individuals (the vast majority of lawsuits are between corporations) since the most common reason someone sues someone else is for medical care reimbursement, something that would go away in a universal healthcare access system.
At any rate, making it harder for doctors to be sued will do nothing, absolutely nothing, to pay for a poor child's chemotherapy.
The counterargument was that ER usage, uncompensated costs, and doctor wait times had all increased in Massachusetts, and that on most counts the plan was a failure. 
I pointed out that it sounded as though the person making this argument was relatively young, healthy, and employed. 
Healthcare is not designed for healthy people, but for the sick (it really should be sick care). You have no idea how good your plan is until you get older and need more medical care, or have a family member who is ill or in an accident. The problem with deciding something like healthcare based on anecdotal experiences or popularity (such as your "friends in Canada" who come to the United States for healthcare) is that most of us most of the time and most of our lives do not need much healthcare. For us, we will judge a plan based on hassle factors - can we see our doctor quickly if we get the sniffles, are our copayments and premiums low, and do we have to call a 1-800 number to pre-authorize every doctor's visit. 
All of those are important, to some extent, but pail in comparison to the questions that really count: 
Will your insurance find some technical reason to drop your coverage if you develop colon cancer or a family member has a stroke and requires extensive rehab? 
Will your lifetime cap get burned through faster than you can keep up with your doctor's bills? 
Will you be left scrambling looking for a new policy with a pre-existing condition in the middle of your chemotherapy, which you put on hold because your insurance cut you off? 
These are not theoretical events; I saw them every day in private practice, often several times a day. 
You may have an outstanding plan. Then again, you may not; under our current roulette system, you just won't know until it's too late.

Massachusetts Plan is Not a Failure
Those who criticize Massachusetts for covering 97% of its citizens sound like someone who, when confronted with the fact that lifeboats plucked 97% of the victims of a shipwreck from the water, is arguing about the inconvenience and cost of forcing the ship to clutter its decks with those lifeboats in the first place (an argument, by the way, that led to the fatal decision to decrease the number of lifeboats the Titanic carried).
Those who criticize government-run or refereed solutions as unworkable or imperfect seem incapable of naming a single free market system anywhere in the world that has successfully covered all of its citizens.  They can't because there is no such entity.  

Walmart May Make Some Drugs Cheap but Cannot Replace Concerted Public Action
You may get many commonly prescribed medications for $4 from Walmart, but try getting a rare but life-saving chemotherapeutic agent there. Try getting dialysis for $4. Or the latest drug for multiple sclerosis. Can Walmart get you a $4 liver transplant? If Walmart was such a vanguard of healthcare solutions, as you allege, why does it not provide its workforce with health insurance?
And even insisting that such a low cost drug plan could not be invented by or successfully implemented by a government bureaucrat is completely unsupported by those pesky things called facts. Decades before Walmart, our government introduced flat or low rate copayments at least in the VA system for certain veterans mail ordering medications and championed mail order pharmacies and the tremendous economies of scale they offered long before private industry hopped on board. They were leaders in electronic record-keeping and still are, with the VA Medical System now the world's largest integrated electronic medical system (whose potential for research is just starting to be tapped into). 
Oh, and long before Walmart and the VA, the Canadians and the Brits had us beat: is $4 a low price? How about free? Canadians and Brits pay nothing for their medications and for most medical services and their system was invented, developed, and implemented 100% by government bureaucrats.
‎"NO Govt bureaucrat would have created either of those solutions!" 
That is a very interesting observation considering that the majority of medications on the market today (including most of those Walmart offers for $4) were developed thanks to government bureaucrats either directly (through research done at the NIH and other places) or indirectly (by writing grants to fund university research that led to countless medical breakthrough). There is not a single medication on the market today that is not there thanks to a whole chain of government bureaucrats from the folks at the FDA who initially reviewed and granted approval to the medications in the question, the inspectors who make sure they continue to be safe and safely manufactured, to the federal bureaucrats in our court system who make sure that intellectual property rights (where applicable) are not infringed upon.
Federal employees have developed many of the medications and technological advances on the market today. The tired argument (I was guilty of making myself not too many years ago) that greed is good and more greed is better simply does not fly. 
Switzerland generates far more medical patents and has won far more Nobel Prizes for medicine than the United States (adjusted for population) but has universal healthcare. Ditto for the United Kingdom.  Glaxo is not going bankrupt or not innovating simply because all British citizens are covered.

Government Workers are Not All Slugs
Dr. Walter Reed was a government bureaucrat who proved Yellow Fever was transmitted by a mosquito and saved countless lives (and allowed work to proceed on the Panama Canal, lowering transportation costs and improving corporate profitability). His innovative, ground-breaking work was done while an employee of the federal government.
Government bureaucrat George Miller Sternberg was not just a scientists and innovator in his own right; he actually is credited with founding the entire field of bacteriology in the United States. 
Brigadier General George Miller Sternberg (June 8, 1838 – November 3, 1915) was a U.S. Army physician who is considered the first U.S. bacteriologist, having written Manual of Bacteriology (1892). After he survived typhoid and yellow fever, Sternberg documented the cause of malaria (1881), discovered the cause of lobar pneumonia (1881), and confirmed the roles of the bacilli of tuberculosis and typhoid fever (1886).

Not bad for a government slug. Every antibiotic created today, including the minority developed by private industry, owes its existence to this federal government bureaucrat. Perhaps a private corporation would have done this too had they enough time or felt it was profitable, but the fact is that they didn't.
Small pox was of course eradicated by those bumbling government bureaucrats you feel could not accomplish anything, although not just American but internationally through the World Health Organization. There was no massive profit motive in doing so; it was simply felt to be the right thing to do. The vaccine used had been developed not by a corporate executive trying to enrich himself, but by a physician,Edward Jenner, who published his work not for personal gain but to advance scientific knowledge and reduce suffering. His work was eventually supported by the British equivalent of a federal government grant (two relatively modest infusions of cash by the king) The work of this non-corporate, government-supported philanthropist researcher transcended the disease in question, launching an entirely new field, immunology

The importance of his work does not stop there. His vaccine also laid the groundwork for modern-day discoveries in immunology, and the field he began may someday lead to cures for arthritis, AIDS, and many other diseases of the time.
The polio vaccine was developed by Dr. Jonas Salk who famously made no effort to profit from his life-saving invention. 

His sole focus had been to develop a safe and effective vaccine as rapidly as possible, with no interest in personal profit. When he was asked in a televised interview who owned the patent to the vaccine, Salk replied: "There is no patent. Could you patent the sun?

He was not a direct government employee, but an employee of a university that received massive federal government research support and a philanthropic organization that was non-profit.
And of course outside of medicine, there was the Apollo moon shot program developed, designed, and inspired by federal bureaucrats piloted by federal employees flying government vehicles hurtling into space. Other signs of federal government incompetence was the defeat of Hitler and the ending of the Thousand Year Reich almost 2,000 years ahead of schedule. There was that taxpayer bailout of Germany proposed by and executed by government employee George Marshall that not only helped jump start an unprecedented economic revival in a country devastated by war but perhaps changed the course of history by preventing a Western economic collapse and expansion of Soviet influence and power. And speaking of cars and commerce, let's not forget that both the German autobahn system and our interstate highway system were both government-sponsored and financed deals that were stunningly successful in terms of opening up and connecting markets and increasing freedom for all of us to travel safely and rapidly across this great country of ours (and Germany too, if we choose). 
Maybe private industry could have developed a means of preventing Yellow Fever, built the Panama Canal, both defeated and rehabilitated Germany, developed vaccines for small pox and polio, eradicated small pox, put several men on the moon (and brought them all back too), and built the interstate highway system, but for whatever reason, they didn't. At any rate, if these achievements represent government incompetence, then give me more of it!
After these examples, the point was yielded that government "serves a 
purpose. But it is not our savior. It is not my mother or father. It is my servant."
Two things. First, these examples all refute your point made earlier in this post (and repeated elsewhere in others) that, as you worded it here, "NO Govt bureaucrat would have created either of those solutions!" You did not say that few government bureaucrats have innovated, you said "NO" government bureaucrats. A single counter-example can serve to shoot down this statement; I offered several.
Second, if you consider your freedom, both from fascism and from certain public health menaces such as polio or small pox, then the government is indeed, in these respects, your savior.
My point is not to lionize government servants, but simply to make mince meat of the arguments of those who feel compelled to disparage all government service all the time. I have worked for the federal government and I have worked for private industry and I have worked for myself and in all cases I have seen inefficiencies. There is yin and yang. I think it is silly and frankly insulting to millions of hard-working Americans, many in harm's way, to keep telling them how stupid and incompetent they are. The historical track record does not support such a blanket statement.
There is one dead Saudi right now whose body is fish food who also chose every opportunity to disparage the United States government until some of highly trained government employees put a bullet through his eye.
‎"Greed is a basic fact of the world. Money motivates us all. You don't want your life centered around it...but if I could make $150000 in Vermont or move a few miles down the road and make $300000...I would move immediately. 98% of Humans would do that. "Greed is one of many motivators of human behavior. I am not arguing it be abolished (indeed, that would be impossible), only that it not be held up for worship. Few successful entrepreneurs are motivated primarily by greed, and those who are often drop out in frustration during the inevitable lean years. Most do it because they love it, because they are obsessed with whatever product or service they are providing, whatever problem they are solving. For most, the money is secondary, a byproduct of doing the right thing in the right place and time. Most would do it for free if they could.
Re your $300k v. $150k example, you clearly have no idea the difference in compensation between various plans, but it's not THAT dramatic. Changing specialties could lead to that sort of difference in compensation; changing plans accepted would not. It's a straw man argument, and as I've said, most of the time I have dropped plans it's not because of money but the hassle factor. In a single payer system (such as Medicare for those over 65) we can sigh in relief, knowing that if they are a legal citizen, their bills will be paid, and there will be a uniform process of bill submission and uniform standards, etc. This exodus of physicians from Massachusetts is news to me, though, especially when you consider that Massachusetts is home to Harvard Medical School and Boston General, where many physicians gladly work at a discount to what they could earn elsewhere for the opportunity to be in an intellectually stimulating environment where exciting work can be done.
The Best and the Brightest Do Not Always Leave Government Service
I disagree with the idea that the "best and brightest" move out of government service; if you are alleging that those working for the NIH or CDC or various and sundry government organizations are there because they are less competent or not as smart as their colleagues who take jobs offering potentially higher compensation in private industry, I would have to strongly disagree (and ask for some data to support this oft-cited urban legend). There are many reasons people choose one setting over another. If, for example, one had a strong interest in public health, the government is the only game in town. If you want to treat the poor or certain under-served populations, such as Native Americans or the prison population, the government is the route to do it . If you want to treat the elderly or the disabled, you will be working either directly or indirectly for the government, since Medicare will be reimbursing your services. If you want to serve in the military or the Coast Guard or the State Department, if you want to travel, if you don't want to worry about all the administrative details of running a practice or the risk of a lawsuit, you might feel far more at home in government service than private practice. I am aware that you have much criticism of government plans' imperfections, but if you presented evidence of a "free market solution" in healthcare, I must have blinked. The United States is alone among industrialized countries in having any of its citizens without access to healthcare. We outspend every other country on the planet, yet 59 million are uninsured. How is this a "solution"? Since none of the options in any country that does successfully provide universal health insurance at a lower cost is entirely free market, what country are you referring to?
There was no response to this question, but I was asked if I had ever seen the film Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.
Yes, I saw the film, whose lead was played by a man who later proudly served as a federal employee in World War II (unlike Ronald Reagan and John Wayne who made up for it by playing soldiers on the silver screen instead). In today's world, Mr. Smith would not get very far unless he could find a deep-pocketed corporate backer like the Koch brothers to pay for his deceptive attack ads. A far better movie starring James Stewart was It's a Wonderful Life, one of the most poignant indictments of corporate greed I have ever seen. I guess we have to ask ourselves if we want to live in Pottersville or if we want to have a community where we are all invested in each other's future and actually know and care about each other.

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Original sin and blood atonement are not just weird - they are morally offensive concepts

I can forgive the people who created these ideas and this elaborate belief system 2,000 years ago; they didn't know better and it reflected the time in which they lived. Why anyone would go out of their way to embrace such a dark, apocalyptic Mediterranean import when we have so many choices (choices those in primitive agrarian cultures were not even aware of) or none at all baffles me.   And no idea is more baffling or preposterous than the most milked of all church recruitment cows:  original sin.
Original sin may have made sense at some level in a primitive, superstitious culture that practiced animal sacrifice on a regular basis, but to a modern, educated, compassionate person is beyond preposterous.

First, it was so trivial - not mass murder, gang rape, or torture, but eating a piece of fruit. Because it tasted good. And because god allegedly left it there, within easy reach, and then walked away (where was he, by the way, if he was omnipresent?). 
Second, a school child can tell you that it is immoral to hold her responsible for something her brother did, much less her great-great-great.... grandmother whom she never met and whose behavior she had no way of controlling. If we can be judged by something done by a third party before we were even born, it makes a mockery of any concept of individual responsibility or accountability, the bedrock of Western democracy and the rule of law.  We simply don't do collective punishment anymore.  Or shouldn't.  Let's not forget that some of the worst anti-Jewish pogroms culminating in the Holocaust were justified on this idea of collective responsibility by an entire community and their offspring for decisions allegedly made by their ancestors.  Original sin did not cause the Holocaust, but it created fertile ground for Hitler to plant his seeds.
Third, even if someone somewhere did something really bad, so bad that guilt for this offense was transmitted somehow in our DNA (maybe it was killing of the Neanderthals, something we may be collectively responsible for, I don't know), we can't do anything to affect it one way or another. Having an animal who did nothing wrong die to give me a get-out-of-hell-free card (blood atonement) or even worse, a human sacrifice, at the heart of the Christian formula of Christ "dying for our sins", then the original sin is only compounded, not mitigated. They are true, true, and unrelated. 
I never met Adam, Eve, or Jesus.  I've never encountered a talking snake, and fruit that is delicious and shiny is almost always good for me (because I evolved the propensity to be attracted to it). I am very sad that Jesus was executed by the Romans who crucified so many innocents (including 5,000 people following the Spartacus uprising alone!), but cannot wrap my mind around the idea that a loving god would knowingly allow his son to be tortured to death because a naked couple once went on an illicit fruit-picking expedition or that any of these stories remotely involve me or my life. 
Original sin is not just weird but offensive.  Why can't we as thinking adults stand up and say these things out loud?  Or let's at least stop teaching this offensive nonsense to our children.

If fundamentalists are right, then we are all in deep, deep trouble... especially fundamentalists!

If the vision of god depicted by modern Christian fundamentalists is correct, we are all truly hosed. 
Jesus said a camel could get through the eye of a needle easier than the rich could get into heaven and by world standards, certainly by historical standards, even the poorest of us in the West is very, very rich. We wear mixed cotton-polyester blends and all enjoy vegetables, whether we realize it or not, that have been raised using biblically forbidden methods such as crop rotation and not observing every seventh year of letting fields lie idle. Some of us eat shellfish, even rabbit, and don't get me started about bacon and pork. We work on Saturday (a capital offense - try explaining to Yahweh that we changed the Sabbath on him) and have abolished slavery without compensating the slave-owner, two biblical offenses. 
We allow women not only to enter a temple while menstruating (we don't even ask anymore) and to argue with her husband (both explicitly forbidden in the Bible) but to own property and vote. (The whole idea of voting and limited government has no basis or precedent in biblical teachings.)  Fathers who beat their children as the Bible commands are now prosecuted, not praised, and parents no longer have the biblically-guaranteed right to kill their children or sell them into slavery if they talk back or if  father, who is, as the Bible tells us, lord of the home in the same way god is lord of the world, thinks it best.  
Yes, our penal code has become more compassionate, but in doing so, it has deviated dangerously from biblical teachings.  We do not stone adulterers or cut off the hand of thieves.  We no longer pull out people's tongues for saying religiously offensive things as the Bible commands, nor do we pour molten liquid down their throats.  
We no longer practice animal sacrifice, the heart of religious service in the time of Jesus;  I honestly can't remember the last time I made a burnt offering to the Lord. 
Since Jesus said we should not just forgive our enemies but love them, I imagine that excluded pre-emptive war and torture, so anyone who participated or supported those un-Christian activities might have a lot of explaining to do. 
Many of Jesus's followers were quite confident they were following his teachings but again and again he reminded them that 
  a.) they were coming up short and 
  b.) that god, not they, would be the judge of that, and that some of them would be in for a nasty surprise, especially those - surprise, surprise! - who had abandoned the poor, the homeless, the imprisoned, and by so doing had abandoned Jesus. 
Now I'm not saying that I endorse this belief system but if I became "born again" tomorrow unless I suffered a head injury that made me incapable of reading or thinking, I would be filled with dread and humility, not joy and self-congratulatory pride.  Accepting the "many are called but few are chosen" view of reality is dark enough; why rub it in by going around telling everyone that you are among the few (and by implication everyone else is going to hell forever and ever, amen)?  
Accepting the Christian world view as it is understood by fundamentalists of the American variety would be like accepting that you are enrolled in a course set up so that most people will fail, with a cranky professor prone to fits of homicidal rage who never directly tells you what you have to do (he doesn't even bother to make his presence known) to pass the course ready not just to fail you but to torture you for failing.
I just don't see how this could be comforting to anyone and doubt anyone who has really thought it through could either (which is why I believe most fundamentalists have not done much thinking).  There is a reason generations of Christians described themselves as god-fearing instead of the current batch of god-gloaters
If Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, George W. Bush, and Glenn Beck are all going to heaven because they have decided they are, then I am not all that sure I would want to go there anyway.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Rapture Prophets Do Not Know Their Own History (Or Some Fundamental Math)

May 20, 2011:   You know this rapture nonsense is getting out of hand when the New York Times (versus the Post) covers it with some seriousness (Rapture Prophecy Tests Family Split on Belief).
But these guys have no idea how old and tiresome this end of the world prediction business is. It's embarrassing and useless, sort of like predicting exactly at which point ocean your  plane will crash into a mountain.  
Most fundamentalists have probably never heard of  Sabbatai Zevi (-1676) but should get to know him.  He claimed to be the Jewish Messiah and had a huge international following.   But at the age of forty, he was forced by the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed IV to convert to Islam or die.  He chose the first option and by all accounts lived the rest of his life in relative peace and comfort. 
This created a scandal and international embarrassment among his followers so deep most of us, including those who have studied religious history, may not have heard of him.  Karen Armstrong goes into this episode in some detail in her wonderful history of fundamentalism, The Battle for God.   Religions tend not to focus or dwell on their many false trials or predictions, giving us the illusion of a single, unbroken chain of authority.
Those who believed in Zevi were sincere, god-fearing people.  They probably could have passed a polygraph test had one existed at the time.  No doubt they were filled with joy at the fact that Yahweh had been so kind as to choose the .0000008% of the Earth's existence (see below) they happened to live in to bless them with his one and only messenger, but they, alas, were wrong.
I have lost count of the number of people who have predicted the end of the earth in my lifetime alone.  Some have been correct in a very narrow sense of the world (their world ended when they killed themselves) but predicting your own suicide is not my definition of clairvoyance. 
But forget all the biblical numerology no doubt someone used to predict that Saturday will be the mother of all weekends.  We need not know anything about the contents of the black box used to make a prediction if the output is so absurdly low as to be, for all practical purposes, impossible. 
Let me explain.  As someone unlucky enough to have been in an earthquake, I like to compute the odds of being in another one anytime I visit somewhere seismically active.  If I find that the last major earthquake in a region was 900 years ago, and that only 3 were recorded over 3,000 years of history, let's say, I will be much less anxious than if I find that over those same 3,000 years, a powerful earthquake occurred every century.  If you are visiting this area for 1 week, then, all things being equal, your probability of being in a devastating earthquake during your visit will be equal to 1 in 5,200, arrived at by reducing the 1/100 risk of an earthquake per year by 52 (the number of weeks in a year).  
We can use similar logic to determine the odds of the earth ending during our lifetime.  Without knowing anything about metaphysics or scrutinizing ancient texts, by using 4.54 billion years as the best guess of the age of the earth, and the observation that it has not ended yet (but will one day), we can then ask the odds of it ending during our lifetime.  Let's be optimists and put our lifespan at 80 years, the rough life expectancy at birth of someone living in the West, so we can divide 80 by 4.6 billion to determine the probability of the earth ending during any individual's life span.  
As you can imagine, this is a very, very small number, about 0.0000017621145%, or 1 in 56.75 million.    To put this in perspective, the odds of winning a single state lottery are 1 in 18 million (or over 3 times as great).  Someone claiming that the world will end in his lifetime is 3 times as stupid as someone announcing that he will win the lottery.  
But the mathematical case against fundamentalism has only just begun.  Most of those predicting the end of the world are already adults, not newborns with 80 years of life ahead of them.  A reasonable assumption would be that on average, those holding this belief are halfway through their lifespan, reducing the window of prediction to 40 years.  They are not predicting that the earth may end in anyone's lifetime but in theirs, which is half over.  This increases the odds against them to 113.5 million to 1.  Now the person predicting he will win the lottery looks 6 times smarter than our rapture-anticipating fundamentalist.  
But there's more.   Fundamentalists are not predicting a range but a specific day for the earth's demise.  Let's assume for the sake of kindness that they beat the 113.5 million to 1 odds and get the lifetime part right.  What are the odds then that the earth will end on any given day of their lifespan?  1 in the number of days in 40 years, or 1 in 14,600 (40 x 365). 
But since there are 113.5 million 40-year time windows in the earth's history, we must multiply 14,600 times 113.5 million...  drum roll, please.
The odds of the earth ending on any given day equals 1 in 1.675 trillion.   To put this in perspective, this is the number of seconds in 53,077 years.    
So to state that the odds against fundamentalists are astronomical is beyond an understatement.  And when you consider that these are the same people using the same document that led them to date the creation of the earth to about 4,000 BCE, an error of proportional magnitude as claiming Los Angeles is only 17 feet from New York.
Of course, even educated people agree with fundamentalists that the world will end.  But this remote future astronomical event is not what the Rapture crowd is predicting (nor is any sane astrophysicist predicting that the earth will end on July 2 of the year 788,1974,994).  
There are certain events so unlikely and sources so unreliable that those predicting the end of the world on Saturday - or any day - are as wrong today as followers of Zevi were in the 17th Century.  

Monday, May 16, 2011

Slave Talk: Tennessee Tea Party Move to Purge Slavery From History Books Reminds me of a 2007 Visit to Magnolia Plantation Outside of Charleston, South Carolina


After reading that the Tennessee Tea Party would like to revise history taught to children to downplay slavery and the struggle of minorities (so as not to detract from the revolutionary if imperfect progress of our founders), I was reminded of a 2007 visit our family made to the Magnolia Plantation outside Charleston, where a descendant of the original owner came to give a "slave talk" at one of the restored slave cabins. He went on to deliver a series of platitudes, half-truths, and some fabrications created during the Lost Cause era when revisionists wanted us to remember that the South fought for states rights but to forget that the right in question was the  right to own slaves. 
He said that no one was ever beaten to death.  He was confident of this because there are no records indicating any slave was ever beaten to death on the plantation. Slavery was not the great "atrocity" some people might want you to believe it was, he reassured the all-white crowd who had come for a Magnolia Plantation Gone With the Wind experience devoid of any nagging reminders of who drained the swamps and tilled the grounds and created the wealth that allowed the plantation they could never enter to be erected. Why, did we know that slaves were allowed to leave the plantation and go into Charleston to buy things for their masters and they all returned?  Now if slavery was such a hell on earth, why did they all come back to it?
I had heard enough at that point.  Trying to sound polite, probably without success, I asked, "Where exactly could they have gone?"
He looked at me a little puzzled by the question. 
"I mean," I continued.  "They were deep in slave territory.  A slave owner had every legal right to beat a runaway slave to death as an example to other slaves.  Not only that, by law anyone who caught a runaway slave had a duty to return that slave to his owner.  After the Dred Scott Decision, this was true even if the slave managed to make it all the way to the North.  The Fugitive Slave Act made it a felony not to return a slave to its rightful owner, even if the slave escaped to a free state." 
About this time, there was a whole lot of uncomfortable shifting going on.   The guy talking repeated that there were no records of anyone being beaten or whipped to death on the plantation. 
"Yes," I countered. "There were no records that Thomas Jefferson had sex with his slaves - and he gave his word of honor that he had not when allegations came up in the campaign of 1800 - but we now know from DNA evidence that he was lying. The absence of proof is not the same as proof of absence." 
He puzzled over this a bit, then took a different tack, claiming that the South probably would have given up slavery if the North had just left them alone and let them do it on their own time. To which I countered that there was a fire-breathing South Carolinian named John C. Calhoun - he might have heard of him since he has a huge statue and several streets and a square in Charleston named after him - said just the opposite, stating that slavery was a "positive good" the South should not just defend but should never apologize for.   
About this time, my family was mad enough at me for spoiling everyone's fun that I decided I had had enough of this slave talk, so decided to leave, but it reminded me that there is a huge chunk of our population that simply wants to pretend this horror never happened.  There is something disturbing (or should be) about the fact that one out of five Americans were in bondage at the time of the founding of the Land of the Free. If we don't know our history, we are doomed to repeat it, and if we really think that slavery wasn't a great trans-generational crime, as Sarah Palin and Glenn Bleck seem to think, then what followed, including a century of slave-cropping, Jim Crow, and use of the southern penal system as a de facto source of compulsory, uncompensated labor (read Douglas Blackmon's Pulitzer Prize winner Slavery by Another Name for details), makes no sense. It's just "dwelling on scars" to talk about slavery according to these folks. Which is why these folks scare me so much.

Monday, May 9, 2011

If This Were Fiction, No One Would Believe It...

If events in Washington were fictional (sometimes we all wish they were), and we were all part of some screenplay, the first thing a good editor would tell us is to rewrite the whole damn thing, starting with the names.  The conversation might run something like this...


Now you've got to change the names here. You can't have a president who has the middle name Hussein and use that name for your villain in Iraq. And what are the odds that his last name - Obama - shares every letter but one with the other bad guy's first name - Osama? It's weird. 
You're already asking the reader to buy the idea that Americans would vote for a black man after a century of owning them and another century fighting like hell to keep them from voting.   IF that would ever happen, you've got to make it believable, starting with the name.  Only in a novel would more Americans vote for a guy with a name like Barack Hussein Obama than for any presidential candidate ever. Right.  
And it just doesn't seem plausible that this pointy-headed academic Constitutional law professor named Obama would nail Osama in only 2 years when his predecessor - the one with the custom-made flight suit and the Mission Accomplished banner who kept falling off the bike - couldn't do it in 8.   Why build this Bush character up to be a man's man, a brush-clearing, smoke-'em-out, dead-or-alive sort of tough guy only to make him look so ineffective by comparison?    
But that's just the beginning.  Who is this guy Boehner. Really?  Don't tell me how it's SUPPOSED to be pronounced; readers are going to pronounce it as they see it and they will think of what it sounds like.  And this after an administration run by two guys named Dick and Bush?   Right.  
Then you have these shadowy billionaires financing the Tea Party and you just had to call them Koch... no, no, stop telling me how it's SUPPOSED to be pronounced; no reader will look at that name and think of COKE.   And he has to start a party of mostly white guys running around getting all excited and calling each other tea-baggers?   You've managed to take an explicit gay sexual act and turn it into something disgusting. 
And what's the name of this minor character from the Dick and Bush era who gets convicted of obstruction of justice but pardoned by the guy he lied for? Scooter?  You're pulling my leg, right?  I have never met an adult named Scooter.  I don't care if it's a nickname, it's weird.  Next you'll be saying there's a Newt in there... 
Oh, you've got to be kidding me! And this Newt fellow goes after a president for adultery in Act 1, Scene 1, impeaches the guy, but we learn in Act 2 that Newt was committing adultery during the impeachment process?  
And at the end of the book, the guy he went after is more popular than god, touring the world wiping out hunger with a rock star named... Bono; and this same rock star was giving advice to a Republican Treasury secretary about alleviating poverty in Africa and this Republican guy listened?   C'mon.  It's just not believable. 
OK, so Newt gets voted out of office, but makes a come back after writing a series of books on Saving America from - is this right? - a "Right Wing Secular Liberal Machine"?  Those are really his words?   So he's not just a hypocrite, but a nut job.  Readers will feel insulted, especially Republican readers.   The Party of Lincoln, even in a novel, would not stoop that low.  You have to make him likable at some level. 
And you' can't have a bad guy who made off with everyone's money named Madoff, and if you do, you can't have it pronounced that way. It's just way too heavy-handed. And if you're going to have another bad guy caught up in another massive scandal, do you have to call him Abramoff. What is this, Dr. Seuss?
And this Palin lady - at least her name doesn't sound like a body part - but you're seriously going to have her quit halfway through her term in Alaska, sign a multi-million dollar book deal, then claim to be a moose-hunting hockey mom?  She can't have her employer build a sophisticated sound studio in the basement of her house then claim that the "lamestream media" is trying to shut her up because she is conservative.  And lose the "lamestream" part - there is no way a woman with a disabled child would use a word like "lame" in that way.  If we want to like her, she has to have some sensitivity or compassion.

It's way too ironic having her teenage daughter get pregnant after she advocated  abstinence-only education while governor of Alaska. It's like you're making fun of these guys.  Do you think the Republicans would be so dumb as to run her if they knew what a mess her family was.  And no kids - none - are ever REALLY called Track, Trig, Willow, or Piper.  Bristol, fine, that's cute, but then you get her knocked up.  

You just can't make her so dumb.  What person with a pulse, much less one who wants to be a heartbeat away from the presidency, couldn't name a single supreme court decision or newspaper she reads, or thinks Africa is a country?   If you're going to have her talk about death panels why immediately alert the reader to the fact that they don't exist?   It kills the plot; once again we have a bunch of crazy people talking about things that they should know aren't real and why? 
Why not tease the reader along, or write some actual death panels into the plot.  This Obama fellow seems a bit too perfect, too polished, too likable.  If he had some sort of dark secret, this could be it.  But then you have to ask why he would be so stupid as to sneak something into a bill that he himself is signing, not writing. 
Oh, and don't have Palin put cross hairs over a likable Congresswoman whose husband is an ASTRONAUT no less (who just happens to have an identical astronaut twin (right!) who is in charge of the space station) then have this lady get shot.  It's too ironic and heavy-handed.   If you do carry out this ridiculous subplot, at least give Palin some capacity for introspection or remorse.  She can't go comparing herself to victims of the Holocaust or pogroms against Jews.  She sounds not just dumb and irony-challenged, but whiny.  I don't like her and I'll bet most readers won't either.  At least most readers have to be given some reason as to why intelligent voters would ever find such a person appealing. 
And if you're going to have an Axis of Evil introduced in Chapter 2, follow up.  You can't have one country invaded and the other two sort of fizzle out.  I like that phrase, by the way, it's got a nice zing to it, but do two of the countries have to share 3 out of 4 letters - you're asking a lot of American readers not to confuse  Iraq and Iran.  Why not fictionalize one, call it Iraqistan or something, or make the other one Canada?  

And this Birther subplot sounds bizarre.  Why are all these Tea Party guys so convinced the president, the first African American president, is really only African?  And everyone who obsesses over this mysterious birth certificate that you tell the reader in Chapter Three was never in doubt and in fact had been released just happens to be white?  Come on.   Readers do not like racist characters, even crafty villain types and these guys aren't even crafty.  
Readers are going to lose patience with these guys.  I know I did.  Move on already. 
And you can't have these Republicans threatening to go after Medicare, Social Security, Head Start, healthcare for poor children - poor children! - AND help for 9-11 volunteers.  We're talking VOLUNTEERS!  On 9-11!   People would be on the streets if this really happened.  And why?  You're trying to make the case that this party is smart but crafty, but here they just seem dumb, trying to plug a trillion dollar hole with a few pennies.  
I like this Rose character who goes into women's healthcare clinics with a hidden camera to nail workers saying stupid things; you have the beginnings of a likable anti-hero, a single issue woman out to single handedly take on this evil organization, but there has to be more.   The organization has to be evil, or she just looks like another nut.   You can't have her going after a group that mostly provides cancer screening and medical care to poor women and girls.   Again, it sounds mean-spirited.  Why not have her infiltrate a hedge fund or oil company?  
You have all these random characters running around with their pet issues and none of them make any sense at the end of the day.  But you could work with her.  I would make her a former porn star or stripper, someone who maybe felt pressured to have an abortion when she was working her way through college, doing tricks on the side, that sort of thing.  Gets real mad, maybe work in a feminist angle.  Abortion as the subjugation of women or something.  It would be unexpected, counter-stereotypical, and might just work. 
But she has to really find a real scandal, otherwise she just looks like another nutty character pursuing her pet issue.   How about something along the lines of higher ups in this evil organization selling fetal body parts on ebay to a diabolical Chinese manufacturer of puppy dog chow?  Now THAT would be a scandal.   This stuff about a bonehead employee counseling fake pimps about dodging reporting requirements does nothing for me.  It's not the sort of stuff Republican lawmakers would present as evidence on the floor of Congress.  
And lose this white loser side kick who dresses up as the world's most unconvincing pimp and goes after all these black organizations like Acorn and what not.  He's too overtly racist, too much of a scumbag.   I'm telling you, most readers are going to feel that you're mocking them and some do care about these issues.  
That Trump character - Trump is the best you could do? - comes across as an evil megalomaniac with an obsession for birth certificates everyone in the book has seen but him.  How can a guy have a helicopter but not an internet connection?  He looks thoroughly moronic sending his "people" off to Hawaii to look for a birth certificate while the president is busy producing Osama's death certificate.  Readers don't like stupid characters, even villains.  And all this stuff about his hair is gratuitous.  Give him some off-setting virtue, maybe make him a really good juggler or something.  
And I guess that's my biggest problem with the book:  why do all these white people think this Obama guy is so bad?   You've got to make the economy heading toward a depression, not on the mend.  The stock market should be crashing, not double what it was 2 months after he took office.  If he lowered taxes for the very rich and everyone else, but they keep calling him a socialist, after awhile these white guys just look angry and kind of dumb.  It makes no sense.  
Where's the catastrophe?   Where is the deep, dark secret that he is desperately trying to hide?  Look, if you want to make this guy into a disaster, bring some of that bad stuff the Bush and Dick people did, like have Obama be the one deregulate the financial industry, watch it blow up as a result, then turn around and hit up the tax payers for $700 billion to fix his mess.    Can't you move this Hurricane Katrina - the only name I like in the book - to Obama's watch?   Having all these poor black people abandoned by a black president would be a twist; having a rich white guy do it is a stereotype.  Too much.  
I like the oil spill, thought you were going somewhere with that, but it sort of made all those Republicans chanting "Drill, baby, drill!" or whatever sound massively discredited.  Again.  C'mon, they have to do something right. 
Have Bush and Dick find something in Iraq, some suspicious powder, a suicide goat stuffed with plutonium, a diabolical anthrax lab.  They can't go charging in and find nothing; hell, at least have them plant something.  
You can't have all this bad stuff happening on his predecessor's watch, then have him look so good by comparison.
And I've got problems with these other names.  
Like Huckabee. Why not just call him Aw-Shucks-abee? When I hear Huckabee, I think of a barefoot guy on a raft drifting down the Mississippi River with a straw hat and a runaway slave.  Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it's not very presidential.
Mitt Romney - is a name maybe we can work with but why not give him a real name like Mitchel or Michael or something. Mitt is something you use in baseball to catch balls.  And frankly, we don't need any images that can be worked into a crude joke, even indirectly.

And you can't have Mitt running against his own healthcare reform plan.  It's just too sloppy, too ironic, plot-wise. 
I guess you have to ask if you're writing farce or fiction.  If it's fiction, it's got to be believable.  Even a farce has to give the Mitts and Newts and Kochs and Boehners some redeeming qualities, starting with their names.  You can't have all these angry white guys with bad names reflexively hating the first African American president for the flimsiest and weirdest of reasons.  There is no way the press in a free country would let them get away with that sort of crap.  No one would ever believe it.  

Why are so many Republicans overweight?

This is a very delicate area, and completely unscientific (there are many overweight people who are not Republicans, after all), but Republicans do seem to blather on the most about personal responsibility and the importance of taxpayers not having to bail people out of poor choices, especially poor health choices.
Fair enough, but have you ever noticed that Republicans all have the same body habitus?  



Notice the chin of Karl Rove as it flows liquid-like over his collar. 


Look at Karl Rove,




Dick Cheney has aged since this picture, but notice also the flow of chins over the collar.  What is often mistaken as a scowl is simply a facial asymmetry perhaps the result of an old stroke (notice the left palpebral fissure is narrower than the right and the labial folds are flatter on the left), itself the result of longstanding cardiovascular disease worsened by decades of alcohol abuse. 

Dick Cheney, and



Here Limbaugh illustrates 2 modifiable health risk factors:  obesity and tobacco abuse.  His illicit narcotics addiction is allegedly in remission.  

Rush Limbaugh.  Then look at





Glenn Beck here illustrating multiple folds under his chin.  Of the cases presented here, Beck's is perhaps the least severe on the Body Mass Index front, but this could be because his drugs of choice (cocaine and amphetamines) are powerful appetite suppressants. 


Glenn Beck and


New Gingrich.


I had a full frontal shot of Newt which reveals what his suit was partially concealing:


That's not Newt's granddaughter, but his third wife, his mistress when Newt was impeaching Clinton for having a mistress.  But I don't want to focus on his inability to control his appetite for sex here, instead focusing on his inability to inhibit his intake of food.   Notice the fully-developed man breasts, generous paunch, and (if you zoom in) distended varicose veins, all evidence of decades of over-eating and insufficient exercise.  The man is a walking cardiovascular time bomb and of course when he requires healthcare, he will get the best and the most expensive, and since he is Medicare-eligible, we will all pay for it.  


Rev. Jerry Falwell Is Dead at 73

Remember Jerry Falwell, the man who said feminists, not anti-feminist religious fundamentalists, had caused 9-11?   He suffered multiple medical stigmata of obesity, including advanced atherosclerosis requiring a stent to be placed in 2005 to open a 70% coronary artery obstruction; he died of a probably heart attack on May 15, 2007, being found down without pulse-less and unconscious in his office.   He died at 74, which is relatively young for such a wealthy white man with access to the best medical technology (including dieticians and physical trainers whose advice he apparently did not or could not follow).  Again, the man who was spent so much time telling everyone that the Antichrist would appear by 2009 (and "of course he'll be Jewish") should have spent more time watching his caloric intake and cholesterol level.
But all these "do as I say, not as I do" personal responsibility Republicans look like hell.  They all have this soft, jowly look, as though some mother has been spoiling them, giving them extra portions, telling them what a smart boy they are.
What is it about people who think they have found Jesus that makes them also think they don't need to lose a few pounds?  
All this personal responsibility stuff seems to end with the guy in the mirror for these Republicans; what on earth was Dick Cheney, a man with a pacemaker, 5 heart attacks, heavy smoking history, and at least 2 DUIs, doing DRINKING ALCOHOL when hunting before he shot his friend in the face on February 11, 2006?      


Cheney's friend, Harry Whittington, a 78-year-old Texas attorney, shot in the face after Cheney had "a beer" for lunch prior to hunting; the taxpayer-funded healthcare necessitated by this accident was never reimbursed by the shooter.  Whittington was quite lucky he did not die; he suffered a myocardial infarction and atrial fib as a result of irritation from pellets lodged in his pericardium. 

 We as taxpayers had to pay for that aftermath; why do we not send the bill to Cheney who clearly was not showing personal responsibility by hunting after drinking (the amount of alcohol is unclear, but irrelevant; personal responsibility dictates that firearms and alcohol do not mix, particularly when the firearm is handled by a man with a history of 5 heart attacks and 2 convictions for Driving Under the Influence).
We are well beyond the days when it was thought you could tell a man's moral character by his physical appearance (although Hollywood directors and novelists often forget this), but when one's physical appearance is a direct byproduct of individual decisions made over a lifetime, the consequences of which all of us must ultimately pay for, do Republicans or conservatives in general really have the moral high ground from which to preach to the rest of us about personal responsibility?  No more than Dick Cheney, a man who sought and obtained 5 deferrals to avoid military service in Vietnam, has a right to lecture us about patriotism.  

Bill Maher: “How many Muslims does a black guy have to kill in one weekend before crackers climb down off his @ss?”

This was divinely succinct and funny, boiling a decade's worth of retorts to Republican spin about their failures on so many fronts to a few pithy verbal jabs.  You have to see the video because the delivery is brutally effective


Bill Maher: The Party of Stinkin’

bill-maher-the-party-of-stinkin


BILL MAHER – THE PARTY OF STINKIN’ or GANGSTA PRESIDENT

And finally, new rule. Now that it's become clear that the Republicans, the fiscally conservative, strong on defense party are neither fiscally conservative nor strong on defense ….they have to tell us what exactly it is they're good at. Because….nanano….because it’s not defense – 9/11 happened on your watch, and you retaliated by invading the wrong country.

And you lost a 10-year game of hide and seek with Osama bin Laden.

And you’re responsible for running up most of the debt, which more than anything makes us weak.

You’re supposed to be the party with the killer instinct, when it was a Democrat who put a bomb in Gaddafi’s bedroom and a bullet in bin Laden’s eye like Moe Green.

Raising the question, “How many Muslims does a black guy have to kill in one weekend before crackers climb down off his ass?”

Let’s look at some facts. Now for you FOX News viewers feel free to turn down the sound until the flashing “FACTS” light at the bottom of the screen disappears.

When Bill Clinton left office in 2001 the Congressional Budget Office predicted that by the end of the decade we would have paid off the entire debt and have a $2 trillion surplus. Instead we have a $10.5 trillion public debt, and the difference in those two numbers is mostly because Republicans put tax cuts for the rich, free drugs for the elderly and two wars on the layaway plan and then bailed on the check. So…….so much for fiscal responsibility.

But hey, at least they still have the defense thing, right? The public still believes Republicans were tougher when it came to hunting down dark-skinned foreigners with funny sounding names. But Bush had seven years to get Osama. He didn’t. He got Wesley Snipes.

Only six months after 9/11, Bush said he didn’t spend that much time on bin Laden, that he was no longer concerned about him. Just as he wasn’t before 9/11, when he blew off that mysterious, inscrutable memo entitled “Bin Laden Determined to Attack INSIDE the U.S.” In under a year, Bush went from “who gives a shit?” to “wanted dead or alive” and back to “who gives a shit?”. Why focus on the terrorists who reduced Wall Street to rubble when you can help Wall Street reduce the whole country to rubble?

In 2008, the candidates were asked if they knew for sure that bin Laden was in Pakistan would you send our guys in without permission to get him. McCain said no, because Pakistan is a sovereign nation. Obama said yes, he’d just do it, and McCain called him “naïve”. Who’s being naïve, Cain?

And why can’t you just admit that Barack Obama is one efficient, steely nerved, multitasking, black ninja gangsta, President?

In one week he produced his birth certificate, comforted disaster victims, swung by Florida to say “hey” to Gabbie Giffords, did stand-up at the correspondents dinner, and then personally rappelled into bin Laden’s lair and put a Chinese star through his throat without waking up any of his 13 wives. That’s how it went down….I saw it on MSNBC.

Look, 30% of this country will always vote Republican. I’m just asking “why?” Yes, paranoia, greed and racism are fun, but…it’s… it’s like when you see someone driving a Mercury. You think, “did that person really wake up one day thinking ‘you know what car I want to drive?”
A Mercury Mariner “. No, no, you assume he knows someone who sells them or he was molested by a Kia dealer as a child.

And I know this all sounds like harsh truth, but Republicans are supposed to be the party of harsh truths. Like “there’s no such thing as a free lunch”.

And speaking of lunch, Obama just ate yours.



  -   transcript source

Saturday, May 7, 2011

History versus the Tea Party: Why Most of the Tea Party's Economic Claims are Simply Not True


Debt v. GDP:  Are High Levels of Government Debt Harmful to Economic Growth?

It has become such a Tea Party axiom that high levels of government debt crush economic growth that you think the two must be strongly inversely correlated, that periods of high government debt are followed by periods of lower economic growth and vice versa.
Although there is a relationship, it is not nearly this simple.  
First, of course, the two variables are not independent.  As economic growth declines, government debt increases as tax revenues of a slower national income stream dry up while more people require expensive government programs from unemployment benefits to Medicaid.  Conversely, when economic growth picks up, so does government revenue, while demand for government services drops as fewer people require public assistance.  


Table One:  Debt Versus GDP and Next Year's GDP Growth 1977-2010:



Budget Year:
Pres:
Debt:
GDP:
dGDP+%
1977
Carter
     0.699
    1.974
12.4%
1978
Carter
     0.772
    2.218
12.8%
1979
Carter
     0.827
    2.502
8.9%
1980
Carter
     0.908
    2.725
12.3%
1981
Reagan
     0.994
    3.059
5.5%
1982
Reagan
     1.137
    3.226
6.7%
1983
Reagan
     1.371
    3.443
11.7%
1984
Reagan
     1.564
    3.847
7.9%
1985
Reagan
     1.817
    4.149
6.2%
1986
Reagan
     2.120
    4.407
5.6%
1987
Reagan
     2.345
    4.654
7.7%
1988
Reagan
     2.601
    5.012
7.8%
1989
Bush
     2.867
    5.402
6.2%
1990
Bush
     3.206
    5.737
3.4%
1991
Bush
     3.598
    5.934
5.2%
1992
Bush
     4.001
    6.241
5.4%
1993
Clinton
     4.351
    6.578
5.9%
1994
Clinton
     4.643
    6.964
5.2%
1995
Clinton
     4.920
    7.325
5.1%
1996
Clinton
     5.181
    7.697
6.4%
1997
Clinton
     5.369
    8.187
5.4%
1998
Clinton
     5.478
    8.626
5.8%
1999
Clinton
     5.605
    9.127
6.4%
2000
Clinton
     5.628
    9.708
3.6%
2001
Bush
     5.769
  10.060
3.2%
2002
Bush
     6.198
  10.378
4.1%
2003
Bush
     6.760
  10.804
6.5%
2004
Bush
     7.354
  11.504
6.4%
2005
Bush
     7.905
  12.235
6.3%
2006
Bush
     8.451
  13.010
4.9%
2007
Bush
     8.951
  13.642
4.3%
2008
Bush
     9.654
  14.222
5.7%
2009
Obama
   10.413
  15.027
5.1%
2010
Obama
   13.954
  15.792
3.0%


Note that both debt and GDP have increased every year in this particular time series, but it's the one most often used by the Tea Party to make their case.

Table 1b.  Debt as a Percentage of GDP Versus Subsequent 12-Month Change in GDP:

Budget Year:
Pres:
Debt as % of GDP:
dGDP+%
1977
Carter
35.4%
12.4%
1978
Carter
34.8%
12.8%
1979
Carter
33.0%
8.9%
1980
Carter
33.3%
12.3%
1981
Reagan
32.5%
5.5%
1982
Reagan
35.2%
6.7%
1983
Reagan
39.8%
11.7%
1984
Reagan
40.7%
7.9%
1985
Reagan
43.8%
6.2%
1986
Reagan
48.1%
5.6%
1987
Reagan
50.4%
7.7%
1988
Reagan
51.9%
7.8%
1989
Bush
53.1%
6.2%
1990
Bush
55.9%
3.4%
1991
Bush
60.6%
5.2%
1992
Bush
64.1%
5.4%
1993
Clinton
66.1%
5.9%
1994
Clinton
66.7%
5.2%
1995
Clinton
67.2%
5.1%
1996
Clinton
67.3%
6.4%
1997
Clinton
65.6%
5.4%
1998
Clinton
63.5%
5.8%
1999
Clinton
61.4%
6.4%
2000
Clinton
58.0%
3.6%
2001
Bush
57.3%
3.2%
2002
Bush
59.7%
4.1%
2003
Bush
62.6%
6.5%
2004
Bush
63.9%
6.4%
2005
Bush
64.6%
6.3%
2006
Bush
65.0%
4.9%
2007
Bush
65.6%
4.3%
2008
Bush
67.9%
5.7%
2009
Obama
69.3%
5.1%
2010
Obama
88.4%
3.0%


If debt were inversely correlated with GDP growth, you would expect to see this from a simple correlation of the two variables, as indeed you do:
The correlation coefficient between the two is -.612 indicating a modest inverse relationship but the R2, a measure of how well the data points fit a line, is a weak .375 (normal for noisy economic time series, however).
When debt ranged from $700 billion to $930 trillion, the average growth in GDP was 11.6% the next year*.  As debt increased, average growth in GDP dropped, with the exception of the 75th-90th percentile of debt (6.09-8.80 trillion) which was followed by a higher after GDP growth rate (5.6%) than the stratum below (5.1% for debt ranging from $4.50 to $6.09 trillion).  
When adjusted for size of the economy, the debt relationship was a bit stronger, with a -.697 correlation coefficient and a .485 R2 (1.0 would indicate a perfect fit with a straight line).



Table Two:  Starting Debt level versus subsequent 12-month change in GDP, 1977-2009:


Sliced data:

 Debt




n:
From:
To:
 GDP growth:

Min-10%
          4
      0.70
         0.93
11.6%

10-25%
          5
      0.93
         1.89
7.6%

25-50%
          8
      1.89
         4.50
6.4%

50-75%
          8
      4.50
         6.09
5.1%

75-90%
          5
      6.09
         8.80
5.6%

90-Max
          4
      8.80
       13.95
4.5%


        34



In fourths:






n:
 From:
 To:
 GDP growth:

Min-25%
          9
      0.70
         1.89
9.4%

25-50%
          8
      1.89
         4.50
5.9%

50-75%
          8
      4.50
         6.09
5.1%

75-Max
          9
      6.09
       13.95
5.1%


        34





















In thirds:






n:
 From:
 To:
 GDP Growth:

Bottom
        11
      0.70
         2.57
8.9%

Middle
        11
      2.57
         5.58
5.6%

Top
        12
      5.58
       13.95
4.9%


        34





The economy did seem to grow fastest when the debt was in the lowest quartile, but the strength of the correlation weakened as the debt increased.   In other words, average growth almost halved from the lowest quartile to the second highest quartile of debt (from 9.4% to 5.1%) but this decrease did not continue into the highest quartile which was roughly equal to the penultimate quartile and only marginally lower than the second quartile (5.1% v. 5.9%). 


Debt versus GDP year-over-year change following each debt observation 1977-2010 divided into strata by starting debt with subsequent average GDP growth.  While very low debt levels were followed by strong growth, the inverse trend flattened out with only slightly below average growth for above average debt.
 * the reason these GDP growth numbers are much higher than the headline GDP growth numbers reported is because they are nominal, using raw GDP, rather than inflation-adjusted (real) using GDP adjusted for inflation.



When debt is expressed as a percentage of GDP, the relationship becomes a bit clearer - lower levels of debt are followed by higher levels of GDP growth.  However, the highest levels of debt, those in the top decile, are followed by faster growth than those in the 75th-90th percentiles.  

Change in debt versus GDP Growth
Fair enough.  The absolute level of debt does seem to have some inverse correlation with subsequent economic growth, but what about changes in the debt level (or the deficit)?   Do markets respond better when the government is running a surplus than a deficit, and worse when the deficits are very large?  

Table Three:  Changes in Debt Year-Over-Year Versus Next 12 Months Change in GDP, 1977-2010:

Budget Year:
Pres:
dDebt%
dGDP+%
1978
Carter
10.4%
12.8%
1979
Carter
7.1%
8.9%
1980
Carter
9.8%
12.3%
1981
Reagan
9.5%
5.5%
1982
Reagan
14.4%
6.7%
1983
Reagan
20.6%
11.7%
1984
Reagan
14.1%
7.9%
1985
Reagan
16.2%
6.2%
1986
Reagan
16.7%
5.6%
1987
Reagan
10.6%
7.7%
1988
Reagan
10.9%
7.8%
1989
Bush
10.2%
6.2%
1990
Bush
11.8%
3.4%
1991
Bush
12.2%
5.2%
1992
Bush
11.2%
5.4%
1993
Clinton
8.7%
5.9%
1994
Clinton
6.7%
5.2%
1995
Clinton
6.0%
5.1%
1996
Clinton
5.3%
6.4%
1997
Clinton
3.6%
5.4%
1998
Clinton
2.0%
5.8%
1999
Clinton
2.3%
6.4%
2000
Clinton
0.4%
3.6%
2001
Bush
2.5%
3.2%
2002
Bush
7.4%
4.1%
2003
Bush
9.1%
6.5%
2004
Bush
8.8%
6.4%
2005
Bush
7.5%
6.3%
2006
Bush
6.9%
4.9%
2007
Bush
5.9%
4.3%
2008
Bush
7.9%
5.7%
2009
Obama
7.9%
5.1%
2010
Obama
34.0%
3.0%

The answer here seems to be a resounding Not Really.
First, the correlation coefficient is a positive .12, meaning that increases in debt are correlated, but very weakly, with growth in GDP.   The higher the percentage increase in debt, the higher the growth you can expect next year.  However, the R2 is .015, telling us the fit to a straight line is very poor.    At the very best, this tells us the Tea Party claim that increases in debt tend to be followed by poor economic growth is not true.  The fairest reading of these data is that there is no real correlation at all.  


It's quite clear that this relationship is neither linear nor inverse.   The economy performed weakly following periods of very low increases in debt, strongest when debt was increasing in the second quartile (50th-75th percentile) and actually performed second-strongest of all when debt was increasing maximally on a year-over-year basis (in the top decile).
If the Tea Party thesis were correct, then you would see tall bars on the left and shorter bars on the right.  You don't, so the Tea Party is wrong on this point. 
Now, this is not to argue that we should increase debt to goose the economy; there are many reasons not to increase debt and to balance your budget.  It just turns out that over the past 40 years, avoiding an economic slowdown has not been one of them. 

Does High Government Spending Lead to Slower Economic Growth? 
This is the next Tea Party thesis, that unless we shrink government spending, economic growth will be slow.  Since government spending relative to the economy has swung from a low of 18.4% under Clinton to a high of 23.5% under Reagan, it seems we might be able to answer this question. 


Table Four:  Government Spending as a % of GDP versus next 12 months change in GDP.

Budget Year:
Pres:
Expenses as a % of GDP:
dGDP+%
1977
Carter
20.7%
12.4%
1978
Carter
20.7%
12.8%
1979
Carter
20.1%
8.9%
1980
Carter
21.7%
12.3%
1981
Reagan
22.2%
5.5%
1982
Reagan
23.1%
6.7%
1983
Reagan
23.5%
11.7%
1984
Reagan
22.1%
7.9%
1985
Reagan
22.8%
6.2%
1986
Reagan
22.5%
5.6%
1987
Reagan
21.6%
7.7%
1988
Reagan
21.2%
7.8%
1989
Bush
21.2%
6.2%
1990
Bush
21.8%
3.4%
1991
Bush
22.3%
5.2%
1992
Bush
22.1%
5.4%
1993
Clinton
21.4%
5.9%
1994
Clinton
21.0%
5.2%
1995
Clinton
20.7%
5.1%
1996
Clinton
20.3%
6.4%
1997
Clinton
19.6%
5.4%
1998
Clinton
19.2%
5.8%
1999
Clinton
18.6%
6.4%
2000
Clinton
18.4%
3.6%
2001
Bush
18.5%
3.2%
2002
Bush
19.4%
4.1%
2003
Bush
20.0%
6.5%
2004
Bush
19.9%
6.4%
2005
Bush
20.2%
6.3%
2006
Bush
20.4%
4.9%
2007
Bush
20.0%
4.3%
2008
Bush
20.9%
5.7%
2009
Obama
20.7%
5.1%
2010
Obama
22.5%
3.0%

Once again, the Tea Party has got this relationship wrong.  Now it maybe that values extremely above or below the relatively narrow range of government spending we have seen in this time period may produce different results, or a different mix of government spending (more on education, research and development, less on defense, let's say) might yield different results, but if one simply looks at the aggregate size of government spending relative to the economy, government spending is positively correlated with changes in GDP:  the more government spending, the higher the economic growth the next year.   Now the relatively weak correlation coefficient of 0.25 and paltry .06 R2 means we should not base policy on this correlation, but if the Tea Party were correct, we would have a strong negative correlation coefficient and a much larger R2.
The linear equation from these data would be: 

  GDP Growth = .47 x government spending (as a % of GDP) + 3%

Again, given the very low R2, these data points do not fit a line, so it's dangerous even making such an equation, but if we had to, that is the best fit line we would make. 


Note that the highest level of government spending as a percentage of GDP led to the highest subsequent growth in GDP.  In this respect, the Keynesians are right and the Tea Party is wrong:  government spending, all things being equal, does seem to stimulate subsequent economic growth.

The sliced data tables follow:

Table Five:  Stratified Data showing various average GDP Growth Rates  for ranges of  government spending as a % of GDP:


Sliced data:

Government         Spending as a % of GDP:




n:
From:
To:
 dGDP:

Min-10%
          4
18.4%
19.2%
4.7%

10-25%
          5
19.2%
20.0%
5.3%

25-50%
          8
20.0%
20.8%
6.4%

50-75%
          8
20.8%
22.1%
6.8%

75-90%
          5
22.1%
22.5%
5.9%

90-Max
          4
22.5%
23.5%
6.9%


        34



In fourths:






n:
From:
To:
 dGDP:

Min-25%
          9
18.4%
20.0%
5.1%

25-50%
          8
20.0%
20.8%
7.7%

50-75%
          8
20.8%
22.1%
6.8%

75-Max
          9
22.1%
23.5%
6.4%


        34





















In thirds:






n:
From:
To:
 dGDP:

Bottom
        11
18.4%
20.3%
5.5%

Middle
        11
20.3%
21.5%
7.0%

Top
        12
21.5%
23.5%
6.7%


        34





Do Tax Cuts Stimulate Economic Growth?
There are many ways to answer this question, but because of complexities in our tax code, the easiest way to address this question is to measure the individual income taxes collected relative to the size of the economy and see if the economy grows stronger when less is collected.   
Let's start though with all taxes collected, including individual income, corporate, estate, and excise taxes:


Table Six:  Taxes (Revenue) Collected as a Percentage of GDP versus subsequent GDP Growth:


Budget Year:
Pres:
Revenue as % of GDP:
dGDP+%
1977
Carter
18.0%
12.4%
1978
Carter
18.0%
12.8%
1979
Carter
18.5%
8.9%
1980
Carter
19.0%
12.3%
1981
Reagan
19.6%
5.5%
1982
Reagan
19.2%
6.7%
1983
Reagan
17.4%
11.7%
1984
Reagan
17.3%
7.9%
1985
Reagan
17.7%
6.2%
1986
Reagan
17.5%
5.6%
1987
Reagan
18.4%
7.7%
1988
Reagan
18.1%
7.8%
1989
Bush
18.3%
6.2%
1990
Bush
18.0%
3.4%
1991
Bush
17.8%
5.2%
1992
Bush
17.5%
5.4%
1993
Clinton
17.5%
5.9%
1994
Clinton
18.1%
5.2%
1995
Clinton
18.5%
5.1%
1996
Clinton
18.9%
6.4%
1997
Clinton
19.3%
5.4%
1998
Clinton
20.0%
5.8%
1999
Clinton
20.0%
6.4%
2000
Clinton
20.9%
3.6%
2001
Bush
19.8%
3.2%
2002
Bush
17.9%
4.1%
2003
Bush
16.5%
6.5%
2004
Bush
16.3%
6.4%
2005
Bush
17.6%
6.3%
2006
Bush
18.5%
4.9%
2007
Bush
18.8%
4.3%
2008
Bush
17.7%
5.7%
2009
Obama
14.0%
5.1%
2010
Obama
13.7%
3.0%

These numbers ranged from a high of 20.9% under Clinton's final year in office to a low of 13.7% in 2010 under President Obama.   How have they correlated with next year's growth in GDP?
Answer:  not at all.  The correlation coefficient is statistically zero (.04) indicating a small but positive correlation (higher tax collections leading to greater subsequent growth rates).  But the teeny .002 R2 indicates these numbers are all over the place, linear-speaking.  

Table Seven:  Revenues collected as a percentage of GDP versus next 12 Months Change in GDP.

Sliced data:






n:
From:
To:
 y:

Min-10%
          4
13.7%
16.7%
5.2%

10-25%
          5
16.7%
17.6%
7.3%

25-50%
          8
17.6%
18.0%
6.4%

50-75%
          8
18.0%
18.9%
6.2%

75-90%
          5
18.9%
19.7%
7.2%

90-Max
          3
19.7%
20.9%
5.1%


        33



In fourths:






n:
From:
To:
 y:

Min-25%
          9
13.7%
17.6%
6.4%

25-50%
          8
17.6%
18.0%
7.0%

50-75%
          8
18.0%
18.9%
6.2%

75-Max
          9
18.9%
20.9%
6.1%


        34





















In thirds:






n:
From:
To:
 y:

Bottom
        11
13.7%
17.7%
6.4%

Middle
        11
17.7%
18.5%
6.9%

Top
        12
18.5%
20.9%
6.1%


        34





A picture is worth a thousand sound bites; if you can see a pattern in here, you're a better person than I am:


Extremely low or high tax collections are associated with weaker growth but beyond that, nothing much can be said.  The economy grows with all different rates of taxation, although admittedly the band of collection has been narrow.  Whenever total tax collection stays near 20%, taxes tend to get cut.

Do individual income tax collections inhibit economic growth?
Finally, I addressed what could be a quibble with the idea of looking at total government revenue; suppose the economy were very sensitive to changes in individual income tax collections?  If so, doing the same analysis as we did with the other variables should lead to an inverse correlation (as collections drop, the GDP grows faster).  As it turns out, more bad news for one of the Tea Party's pet theories:  the "burden" of individual income taxes holds back economic growth and lowering those taxes (which if done correctly should be reflected in lower government collection of income taxes) should lead to higher subsequent GDP growth.  It doesn't.

Table Eight:  Individual Income Tax Collections as a Percentage of GDP versus Subsequent Growth in GDP:


Budget Year:
Pres:
Individual Income taxes as % of GDP:
dGDP+%
1977
Carter
8.0%
12.4%
1978
Carter
8.2%
12.8%
1979
Carter
8.7%
8.9%
1980
Carter
9.0%
12.3%
1981
Reagan
9.3%
5.5%
1982
Reagan
9.2%
6.7%
1983
Reagan
8.4%
11.7%
1984
Reagan
7.8%
7.9%
1985
Reagan
8.1%
6.2%
1986
Reagan
7.9%
5.6%
1987
Reagan
8.4%
7.7%
1988
Reagan
8.0%
7.8%
1989
Bush
8.3%
6.2%
1990
Bush
8.1%
3.4%
1991
Bush
7.9%
5.2%
1992
Bush
7.6%
5.4%
1993
Clinton
7.7%
5.9%
1994
Clinton
7.8%
5.2%
1995
Clinton
8.1%
5.1%
1996
Clinton
8.5%
6.4%
1997
Clinton
9.0%
5.4%
1998
Clinton
9.6%
5.8%
1999
Clinton
9.6%
6.4%
2000
Clinton
10.3%
3.6%
2001
Bush
9.9%
3.2%
2002
Bush
8.3%
4.1%
2003
Bush
7.3%
6.5%
2004
Bush
7.0%
6.4%
2005
Bush
7.6%
6.3%
2006
Bush
8.0%
4.9%
2007
Bush
8.5%
4.3%
2008
Bush
8.1%
5.7%
2009
Obama
6.1%
5.1%
2010
Obama
5.7%
3.0%

The correlation between the two is very weak (.05) but positive, indicating there really is no relationship.  R2 is a paltry .002.    The stratified data show no clear overall trend, except for a counter-Tea Party one:  from the minimum to the top decile, as you increase individual income tax collection, you get a higher subsequent GDP growth until the very highest rates of individual income tax collections 9.5-10.3% of the economy, which had the lowest growth rates of all.  So perhaps the Tea Party is correct that there is a sweet spot beyond which taxation leads to slower rates of economic growth, but there was no tax rate in this range that led to negative growth and it is unclear what to make of this single slice, or whether higher rates of tax collection would have resumed the positive trend in economic growth.  

Table Nine:  Stratified data showing different ranges of individual income tax collection as a percentage of GDP versus subsequent 12-month change in GDP, 1977-2010:


Sliced data:






n:
From:
To:
 y:

Min-10%
          4
5.7%
7.4%
5.2%

10-25%
          5
7.4%
7.8%
6.1%

25-50%
          8
7.8%
8.1%
6.4%

50-75%
          8
8.1%
8.7%
7.1%

75-90%
          5
8.7%
9.5%
7.7%

90-Max
          3
9.5%
10.3%
5.1%


        33



In fourths:






n:
From:
To:
 y:

Min-25%
          9
5.7%
7.8%
5.7%

25-50%
          8
7.8%
8.1%
6.6%

50-75%
          8
8.1%
8.7%
7.1%

75-Max
          9
8.7%
10.3%
6.4%


        34





















In thirds:






n:
From:
To:
 y:

Bottom
        11
5.7%
8.0%
5.7%

Middle
        11
8.0%
8.4%
7.3%

Top
        12
8.4%
10.3%
6.3%


        34






Individual income tax collections arranged by percentile bins versus average GDP growth in each bin.  Note that GDP growth INCREASES as individual income tax collections as a percentage of GDP increase until beyond the 90th percentile, when subsequent economic growth slows to about the same rate as at the lowest individual income tax collection rates.  

Summary
Although the Tea Party is correct that very high levels of debt are correlated, although not always, with slower rates of subsequent GDP growth, beyond the highest extremes, this relationship is weak and quickly flattens out.  Periods of very low debt have been correlated with stronger economic growth than periods of extremely high debt.
However, no other Tea Party talking points are supported by vigorous historical analysis.  
Changes in debt from year to year, the size of government spending, government tax collection, or individual income tax collection are either not correlated at all with subsequent growth in GDP or are slightly positively correlated.  There are many reasons to decrease the size of the government and its level of tax collection, but stimulating economic growth does not seem to be one of them, if the last 40 years are any guide.  And unfortunately for the Tea Party, these data are the only guide we have.  

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