Showing posts with label guns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label guns. Show all posts

Monday, December 5, 2016

How a Southern White Gun-Owning Male Figured He Would End That Clinton Child Sex Trafficking Ring Run Out of a Pizzeria Once And For All, Rescuing All Those Chil'ren

Mike Victor

To all my friends on the right (both of you) who told me that Clinton's 2.5 million popular vote victory was reality slapping us Liberals in the face to remind us how little we know about Real Americans (read:  white, gun-owning, Christian country folks with less than a college education):  allow me to remind you what reality REALLY looks like when the universe is trying to teach us a lesson.  This is no slap in the face but a 2x4 upside the head.

gun owner from nc who fired shots in Washington pizza store because of fake news about clinton edgar-maddison-welch-51.jpg

28-year-old Edgar Maddison Welch, of Salisbury, North Carolina, who drove across the country with at least 3 firearms, 2 of which he used inside the premises of Comet Ping Pong, believed by right wing conspiracy theorists to be the front for a child sex trafficking ring run by the Clinton family after a fake news story was misunderstood to be true.  

Our instructive tale could start anywhere, but let's keep it simple and fast forward through slavery, the Fugitive Slave Act, Dred Scott, secession, the Civil War, Reconstruction, the Lost Cause mythology, Jim Crow, Brown v. Board of Education, the lost cause for segregation, Little Rock, Selma, the Voting Rights Act, and the election of our first African American as president.   
Although we kind of need that last part because the election of a black president fueled the seething rage that spilled over against Democrats in general among Southern males in particular, a rage best expressed through (what else?) a surge in gun sales.  
Gun manufacturers were more than happy to play upon Southern white male paranoia that Liberals were going to come for their guns (just as soon as we could find a truck big enough to also hold their bibles (no sense making two trips, especially by a CO2-obsessed administration duped by that Chinese global warming hoax).)  
Reality just gave us all the ingredients for another mass casualty event (this one luckily averted):

- Southern white male gun owner +

- Easy availability of weapons of war on demand without background check, weapons that all other countries reserve for their military +


- Mass media AWOL as an instrument of education or truth-telling since infotainment is so much more profitable +

- A white male racist candidate telling other white males that they are a persecuted minority whose cause he will bring to the Oval Office while locking up his dastardly opponent who is "evil", "such a nasty woman", a "liar", "criminal", and "corrupt" +

- Years of far right partisan news (Fox, hate radio, "Christian family" radio) stoking outrage and paranoia, lowering the bar as to what dastardly plots would be believable about Clinton or any other member of the Massive Left Wing Secular Humanist Conspiracy, intent as it is to bring science into your kid's school and ISIS to a Walmart near you (because, you know, there are few things that secular Western feminists love as much as a far right, misogynistic, militant theocracy) +

- Fake news (AKA maliciously fabricated lies to stoke hatred of a woman who by all rights should be our first female president) +

- Her opponent openly inviting the Russians to hack her emails (which they did, then selectively released to a gullible public) +

- Social media acting as an echo chamber of Really Bad Ideas  +

- Gasoline cheap enough to allow a private citizen who is either unemployed or marginally employed to drive across the country to conduct his own private investigation and deliver his own vigilante justice to a child sex slave ring Clinton was running from a Washington state pizza store.

Luckily, the North Carolina gun owner was a bad shot or lost his nerve while executing his Second Amendment remedy, and his first intended victim fled as soon as he leveled one of the two weapons he brought into the store (a third was in his vehicle).   The police intervened and arrested the would-be mass shooter alive (he is white, after all).  
I know I keep saying this, but you really, really, really cannot make this stuff up.  If you did, no one would believe you.  


The Hollywood Movie Pitch

I actually did imagine what might happen if someone in Hollywood tried to pitch a movie with the above plot.  You're welcome.  

WRITER: Yeah, so this guy makes up this crazy, wild-ass story about a major political candidate, a former Secretary of State, and her husband, a popular former president, accusing them of -

PRODUCER:  Let me guess - peddling their influence and access for money?

WRITER:  No, no, no!  Too boring.  Of running a child sex trafficking ring.

PRODUCER:  [Pausing, not knowing if he is part of some elaborate practical joke.]  A sex trafficking ring?

WRITER:  A CHILD sex trafficking ring.  

PRODUCER:  [Shaking his head.]   This doesn't make any sense at all.  Why would a high profile family, scrutinized by the press, one excoriated by a hostile Republican Congress, investigated by the FBI (and exonerated in all cases) do something so crazy?  These are now very wealthy people.  They're not short of cash, so where is your motivation for them throwing away everything they have on this sort of scheme?  And why in Washington STATE?  Are you sure it should not be Washington, D.C.?  

WRITER:   I don't know, I haven't worked all that out yet, but in my screenplay, the Clintons are going to come across as diabolical, arrogant, aloof, absolutely convinced they can get away with anything.  Why, if she could get away with having 6 classified emails on a private email server with no charges brought against her, she could get away with ANYTHING!  Don't you see?  

PRODUCER:  No, not at all.  This sounds like dog shit.  What other ideas do you have?

WRITER:   Please hear me out.  There is more.  

PRODUCER:  [Looking impatient.]  I was afraid you would say that.

WRITER:   The Clintons figure that they can get away with it by using a legitimate business as a front for their operations.

PRODUCER:  So now it's a mafia movie?  A legitimate, family-owned olive oil business?

WRITER:  Close - a pizzeria!

PRODUCER:  A pizzeria?  

WRITER:  Yeah.  Crazy, isn't it?  

PRODUCER:  There are other words to describe it, but who the hell would believe such an idiotic plotline?  

WRITER:  [clapping his hands with delight]  EXACTLY!   And that brings me to my big plot twist.  

PRODUCER:   To have a plot twist, you first need a plot.  

WRITER:  None of this is really true.  

PRODUCER:  You don't say.

WRITER:   No, I mean in the script.  The child sex trafficking ring fronting as a Washington state pizzeria is all a fake story.   A plant.

PRODUCER:  And an idiotic one at that.   You got nothing here.

WRITER:    But you haven't heard it all.

PRODUCER:  What - some lunatic hears the story, thinks it's true, then tries to kill the Clintons?

WRITER:   Better than that!  He hears the story -

PRODUCER:  Let me guess - he's gotta be a white guy, a Southerner maybe, with a huge gun collection.  A Trump supporter?  Do I have the stereotype complete?  What other clichés will you throw in - a picture of him posing for Facebook with a cocky look on his face, dressed all in black, holding up his assault rifle with a banana clip locked and loaded?

WRITER:  [looking encouraged]  You read the script?  

PRODUCER:  No, I didn't read it and I don't intend to.  It's borrowed from so many movies and caricatures of the South, always created by people who never lived there.  People who live in the liberal bubbles on either coast.  

WRITER:   I can scramble some of the demographics then, make him from Oakland, California, or something.  

PRODUCER:  No, you would have to make him from Mars to believe this horseshit.  It's just not believable.  

WRITER:   Well I'll work on it.  Maybe he's psychotic or something.  

PRODUCER:  So then it's just a movie about some lone psychotic guy.   The story, the guns, the Clintons, none of it matters.  Boring.

WRITER:   [plowing through]   So he's not psychotic.  Maybe just gullible.  Listens to talk radio all the time and watches Fox News.  Everyone in his trailer park is convinced the Hillary Clinton is the anti-Christ.

PRODUCER:  You're just piling it on thicker.   There are a lot of folks who live in trailer parks who DO think Hillary Clinton is the anti-Christ and I got news for you - they buy movie tickets.  But not for this excrement.  [holding his head in his hands]  Just out of morbid curiosity, how does it end?  Put me out of my misery.

WRITER:    Well, our shooter is so mad, he hops in his car and -

PRODUCER:  Drives to New York to confront the Clintons.

WRITER:  No, no, no!  He drives to Washington.

PRODUCER:  D.C.?

WRITER:  No, Washington STATE!  Haven't you been listening?  

PRODUCER:   So you want me to believe that some random guy hears a fake news story that is so absurd that even I don't believe it - and I'm in a business that makes movies about kids who can talk to dead people or kill death eaters with a magic wand - loads up his truck with his arsenal then drives across country not to kill the ringleaders of this dastardly scheme but to have a shootout with some poor pizza delivery guy who probably doesn't even know about the terrified kids locked up in the back of the store?  

WRITER:  [uncertainly now]  Yes...

PRODUCER:   [Sighs deeply.]  When is the last time you talked to your shrink?

WRITER:  Ah, c'mon, this story has everything - guns, politics, the Clinton, fake news, pedophilia.

PRODUCER:   It's terrible.  Only an idiot would believe it.  There's no there there.   We're trying to market our shit to a mass audience.  Including a lot of gun owning white males in the South who won't take kindly to being made to look like gullible idiots who reflexively believe the most patent nonsense about the Clintons.  These folks might not always be the sharpest knives in the drawer, but they are not THAT dumb.  I have a dozen right wing groups who already say this town is too damn liberal and doesn't get Southern gun owners - if I turned this script of yours into a movie, they would form a lynch mob.  An antisemitic lynch mob, I might add.  And this puddle of dog vomit isn't worth dying over.  

WRITER:  [looking dejected]  Maybe you're right.  

PRODUCER:  Of course I am.   [laughing]  Child sex ring run out of a pizzeria… who ever heard of such a thing?  But just out of curiosity, in this script of yours, what enemy of the Clintons fabricated this story?   The Pakistan intelligence service?  The Russians?  Bernie Sanders' people?

WRITER:  [shrugging]  Nah, just some guy in his pajamas.  He did it for shits and giggles.  And to make a little money off of all the clicks he got.  

PRODUCER:   You've got to be kidding me.  All this trouble caused by some random person who didn't even have it in for the Clintons?   None of this is tied together.  It's too random.  How much money did he make from it?

WRITER:  I don't know.  What difference does it make?  A few thousand bucks, if that.  But it will all be chewed up in legal fees after the lawsuits and maybe some criminal charges.  

PRODUCER:  The only crime here is the minutes of my life you stole from me and that I can never have back.  So what else you got?

WRITER:  [with a deep sigh, closes his manuscript and pulls out another]  OK, I'm not as excited about this, but here me out.  We start with a talking blender.

PRODUCER:  Like the kitchen appliance?

WRITER:  Exactly.  

PRODUCER:  [now excited]  Who talks?  

WRITER:  Of course.  But only when the homeowner isn't around.

PRODUCER:  And that's why we never see them talking!

WRITER:  You got it!  So this blender comes to life and leads all the other household appliances - who can all also talk when the homeowner isn't around -

PRODUCER:  [spreading his hands]  Of course!

WRITER:  - to launch a revolt, this campaign to get the manufacturing company not to discontinue his model.  

PRODUCER:  [his eyes narrowing]  I like it.    

WRITER:  [nervously]  Yeah.  I was thinking Robert De Niro as the blender's voice.  

PRODUCER:  [snapping his fingers]  And Danny De Vito as the toaster's!

WRITER:   You're a genius.  

PRODUCER:   No, you are a genius.  You had me scared for a minute, but you still have the touch.  Now THIS audiences can believe.   Polish it up and I'll start making some calls.   
[Writer leaves.  Producer shakes his head one last time and chuckles.]   Fake news pizzeria child sex ring run by the Clintons.    As if.  



Google Document version of this post.  


Thursday, December 17, 2015

Is the USA Facing An Epidemic of Islamic-Inspired Violence? Spoiler Alert: No.

Are We Facing An Epidemic of Islamic-Inspired Violence?   (And If So, Does Trump Have the Cure?)
12/10/15


Whenever I am repeatedly shocked or surprised by something, it's usually because my model of reality governing that particular something was deeply flawed.  
And so it is with Trump and his supporters.  I was wrong along with so many others in believing that his campaign would prove to be an entertaining but ultimately ephemeral sideshow.   I cheered when Huffington Post moved coverage of his campaign to the Entertainment section, saying that it wasn't serious politics.  
But Trump is still leading and by a widening margin.   The more sane, educated people are appalled, the more his followers are delighted.
So what gives?
I think it goes back to Tulips.  And the South Sea bubble.   And Pets.com, collateralized debt obligations, and home prices that could never fall.  
Never underestimate that madness of crowds.   When people get an infectious, incorrect idea in their heads, especially one that is emotionally provocative ("if you keep borrowing against your home equity, you will never have to really repay the debt since your home will always rise in value" or "the United States faces an epidemic of Muslim-inspired violence that only a prohibition of Islam will fix") it has to run its course.  It can't be reasoned away by pointy-headed people with their "facts" and "data" and "logic."  This time is different.  The old rules don't apply.  No rules really apply.  We should all embrace this new paradigm.  
And all new paradigms (which are really old ones in new clothes) need a new, charismatic leader, one who can channel all that collective disdain for the experts who all their life have always made the masses feel a little guilty for not doing their homework.  There isn't any need for homework anymore.  All that is needed is boldness!  
The Trump supporters interviewed here are really no different than stock investors buying on 10:1 margin in 1929 or bond traders selling insurance policies on tranches of crappy subprime mortgages in 2007 or those who thought Mitt Romney was a sure thing (this last bet wasn't off quite as wildly, but it's clear that Mitt Romney himself had never seriously considered the possibility that he might lose until the election returns showed that indeed he had.  
Trump is the new, bold leader of the latest bubble in popular thinking (which is somewhat redundant, since all bubbles require the dynamics of a frenzied crowd to grow and spread).  The assumptions of the bubble follow:  


  The United States is facing an unprecedented wave of terror attacks led by Islamically-inspired radicals.  
  The president of the United States, himself a Muslim, refuses to recognize this reality that any casual viewer of Fox & Friends knows to be true.
  The mainstream media (meaning anything but Fox or Christian fundamentalist radio or Rush or Sean) are conspiring with our Muslim president and perhaps the Muslim Brotherhood to keep Americans ignorant of the truth.
  Trump is not afraid to speak this politically-incorrect truth:  only by keeping Muslims out of this country or closely monitored once they are here can we ever hope to fight this epidemic of Islamic-inspired terrorism that poses an existentialist threat to our country.  


Distilled to its essence:  


  Muslims are terrorizing America.  
  Keep Muslims out or register those who are here and you will eliminate terror in America.  
  Only Trump has the vision to do this.  
  Vote for Trump!  


As in any bubble, there is a grain of truth.   There have been 4 terrorist attacks perpetrated by Muslims inspired by an Islamist ideology during the President Obama administration:  


Attack Death toll
Fort Hood 13
Boston Marathon bombing  3
Chattanooga  5
San Bernadino 14


Total 35


3 of these 4 attacks (32 of these 35 dead) were committed with legally-obtained firearms (the other was made possible thanks to firearms which covered the escape of one of the bombers).    
But the grain of truth is whipped up into complete, mass hysteria.   
35 dead represents the number of Americans killed every 9 hours and 20 minutes from non-Muslim-inspired gun violence.   
That means that about 5 Americans have died during the average year of President Obama's term 6.9 years in office from domestic Islamic terrorism.  
We could argue that this is 5 too many, but is it an epidemic?  
Well, 5 is about the average number of people who die ON THE ENTIRE PLANET from shark attacks.  
The average American is 30 times more likely to die from falling airplane parts than from a shark attack.  
Therefore, we are facing an epidemic of Islamist violence in the United States only if we are facing a far, far greater epidemic of falling airplane parts.   (Why are both parties so silent on THIS epidemic?  Should we not ban all flights just to be on the safe side "until we know everything" as Trump said of Muslim immigration?)
I won't go through the rate per capita and compare it to automobile deaths, the flu, or cardiovascular disease, but take my word for it:  it's not even a rounding error.  


Since the premise is false, the conclusion (that Trump's Islamophobic policies will stop this non-existent epidemic in its tracks) is also false, but let's go through a few numbers to humor his supporters.  
Numbers vary widely (the United States does not ask citizens to declare a religion when conducting a census or for any other official government business), but there are about 6.7 million Muslim Americans.    
This means the 6 total Islamically-inspired Muslim Americans represent literally 1 in a million American Muslims.  
How does this compare to domestic terrorism committed by non-Islamic non-Islamic terrorists?  
Since President Obama took office, here are those numbers  29 killed in 10 attacks.   (See Appendix below for a detailed list), or 4.2 Americans killed per year.  
So although it's true that Islamic-inspired terrorism has been about 20% greater (35 versus 29 killed) over this period, and that since Muslim Americans are only 2% of the population, this does represent a higher rate per capita than among non-Muslims, the numbers are still tiny in both cases.   There were dozens of plots to kill people for right wing religious or ideological reasons that were disrupted and Christian or anti-government terrorists seem to enjoy a degree of popular support in many regions of the country that no Muslim terrorist does, allowing them to seek refuge among collaborators in a way that Islamists can't.  
If Islamist terrorism is an epidemic, then non-Islamic terrorism must at least be a very bad outbreak.  
But of course neither is a significant killer of Americans.   33,000 Americans die in gun violence that is not politically-motivated.   How many?  About 33,000 a year  or 90 a day.  
So let's compare side-by-side:


Cause of death Average deaths per year
Islamist terrorism 5.1
non-Islamist terrorism 4.2
firearms    33,000   


           You are 6,471 times more likely to be killed by a plain old firearm discharge (homicide, murder, or accident) than by a politically-inspired one.  
And yes, you are 7,857 times more likely to be killed by homicide, murder, or accidents as by non-Islamic terrorism.   
You are 3,548 times more likely to be killed by non-terrorist gunshots as by all forms of terrorism combined.  
So why are we worried about terrorism but oblivious to firearm dangers such as the gun show loophole again?  
Now let's say that Trump's strategy works and the number of Islamist terrorism deaths drops to 0.  Let's further assume that his stoking of Islamophobic hatred doesn't stoke more non-Islamist terrorism.   How would this affect overall firearm deaths (which include terrorist deaths)?
Well, 33,000 per year would drop by 5.1 a year to 32,994.9.  However, since we really should have no more than 3 significant digits, this rounds off to … 33,000.    The net effect of Trump's policy would be zero since the problem he is trying to solve is so miniscule it's within the rounding error of the total firearm mortality data of which it's a part.  



Appendix:  List of Non-Muslim Terrorist Attacks in the United States since 2009 in which at least one person was killed.  



2009 May 31: Dr  George Tiller shot by an anti-abortion Christian extremist: 1 killed.
2009 June 10: United States Holocaust Memorial Museum shooting: 88-year-old James Wenneker von Brunn, a white supremacist and neo-Nazi, walked into the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., shooting and mortally wounding Stephen Tyrone Johns, a security guard:  1 killed
2010 February 18: Austin suicide attack: Andrew Joseph Stack III flying his single engine plane flew into the Austin Texas IRS building killing himself and one IRS employee and injuring 13 others. 1
2012 August 5: Wisconsin Sikh temple shooting: Six people were killed and three others were injured, including a police officer who was tending to victims at a Sikh temple in Oak Creek, Wisconsin. The gunman, 40-year-old Wade Michael Page, killed himself after being shot by police  6
2013 November 1: 2013 Los Angeles International Airport shooting: Paul Anthony Ciancia entered the checkpoint at the Los Angeles International Airportand fired his rifle, killing one Transportation Security Administration officer and injuring six others. The motivation behind the attack was Paul's inspiration of the anti-government agenda, such as believing in the New World Order conspiracy theory, and stating that he "wanted to kill TSA" and described them as "pigs".   1
2014 April 13: Overland Park Jewish Community Center shooting: A pair of shootings committed by a lone gunman occurred at the Jewish Community Center of Greater Kansas City and Village Shalom, a Jewish retirement community, in Overland Park, Kansas. A total of three people died in the shootings. Frazier Glenn Miller, Jr., a neo-Nazi was arrested and charged with capital murder, first-degree murder, attempted first-degree murder, and aggravated assault.  3
2014 June 8: 2014 Las Vegas shootings: Two police officers and one civilian died in a shooting spree in the Las Vegas Valley committed by a couple, identified as Jerad and Amanda Miller, who espoused anti-government views and were reportedly inspired by the outcome of the Bundy standoff. 3
2014 September 16: Eric Matthew Frein described as a survivalist is alleged to have killed a Pennsylvania State trooper and critically wounded another at the Blooming Grove barracks. 1
2015 June 17: Charleston church shooting: a mass shooting took place at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in downtown Charleston, South Carolina..   Dylann Roof was arrested and later confessed that he committed the shooting in order to initiate a race war.  9
2015 November 27: 2015 Colorado Springs shootings: Robert L. Dear, armed with an assault-style rifle opened fire at a Colorado Springs Planned Parenthood. Two civilians and one police officer were killed, and four civilians and five police officers were wounded before the suspect surrendered. Dear told police "No more baby parts" after being taken into custody.  3


Let's say that Trump's fantasy of a Muslim-rein America were carried out and all Muslims were barred from entering the United States or rounded up an put into camps if they are already here.   (Again, this could never happen for legal, moral, and practical reasons, but for purposes of illustration, let's carry it out logically.)


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