February 11, 2014
This is the
#1 emailed New York Times article at the moment, essentially
an interview with Alvin Plantinga, an emeritus professor of philosophy at the
University of Notre Dame, a former president of both the Society of
Christian Philosophers and the American Philosophical Association, who believes in god and tries to explain
why he believes the 62% of his philosopher colleagues who are atheists
are not only wrong, but irrational (believing something for which they
lack evidence and reason). It's clear that philosophy
has gone downhill since the time of the Enlightenment when it peeled
away from science (most Enlightenment philosophers were also heavily
steeped in mathematics and science, something sorely lacking from those
who study humanities today, for the most part).
Speaking of
science, close to 100% of physicists - arguably those closest to studying
the mind of god if there is one and grappling with eschatology - are
atheists.
The modern American Christian theistic argument is quite
specific, quite radical, and therefore quite easy to disprove. The
good philosopher interviewed here does not seem to be aware of this, or
perhaps is ignorant of the principles of probability and joint
probability in general.
In general,
the more specific a prediction
the less likely it is to be true. For example, it is far more likely
that Jane will be a librarian than that Jane will be a librarian working
at a university library which itself is far less likely than the
prediction that Jane will be a librarian working at a university library
in New York City.
The
broadest theistic argument is that
there is some sort of god, or higher power, or original force that
created the universe. Let's call this
G.
This hypothesis is far
more likely than the hypothesis that
there is a god and only one god
(
monotheism). Monotheism is up to infinitely less likely than
polytheism or agnostic polytheism (the belief in one god while not
making any bet about the existence of other gods). Let's call this
hypothesis
MG for the two conditions M (mono) and G (god).
The joint
probability that there is one and only one god is equal to the
probability that there is at least one god times the probability that
there is only one god.
Both conditions
must be true for this hypothesis
to be correct. We don't know the probability that there is a god but
we can work out roughly the odds that the god chosen by Christians is
god by dividing by the numerator of all possible gods. Since this
number is theoretically infinite, or close to it, let's instead divide
by only the number of gods currently believed in by anyone on the
planet. This again is a huge number, and there are doubtless many
deities in isolated communities unstudied by anthropologists, but let's
use the Hindu number of about
330 million gods since the others are
rounding errors in this estimate. So,
it is at least 330 million times
more likely that there is more than one god than that there is one and
only one god.
Again, the Christian theistic argument adds multiple
additional conditions. This single god is male. Ignoring for a
moment the possibility of androgynous or sexless gods,
what is the
probability that god has a penis? If we were created in the image of
god and 50% of us have penises, then the probability god has one too is
50%.
So the condition that god exists, is alone, and has a penis is
half as likely as the probability that god exists and is alone which in
turn is 330 million times less likely than that god exists and is not
alone.
But there is more. The Christian theistic argument states
that god has a name:
Yahweh and was worshiped by a single people in a
single place and time between several thousand to 2,000 years ago. The
math can get very complicated here, but for simplicity's sake, let's
use the world's relative Jewish population today as the probability that
this people and only this people had a visit from god. According to
the Pew Research forum as cited in the Economist in 2012, about
2 out of
every 1,000 people on earth are Jewish.
So the probability of god
being a
single male Jewish god is equal to the probability that
- he is a he
(50%) x
- probability he is single (1 / 330 million) x
- probability he is
Jewish (2/1,000).
Let's call this hypothesis
YMG and it's probability
works out to
1 in 660 billion.
But Christians don't stop there.
They layer in more conditions to this already astronomically unlikely
prediction. Their god has another name because their god Yahweh
impregnated a Palestinian teenager named Mary and had a son who had both
godlike and human properties. His name was Jesus, and he lived almost
exactly 2,000 years ago, mostly in Palestine. This complicates things
quite a bit. We have to ignore
the probability of an angel impregnating
a teenage girl, something that no one has witnessed before or since (in
fact, we are very much left to a single biblical author translated from
the Septuagint was by Christians to their advantage in the last decade
of the 1st century during the Synod of Jamnia (Jabneh),in
Palestine,changing the Hebrew word
Aalma (young woman) to the Greek word
parthenos (virgin) which changed chapter 7, verse 14 of Isaiah to
Behold, a virgin shall conceive and bear a son, and shall call his
name Immanuel
Ignoring
the probability of a chain of authors all copying and translating with
true fidelity, or the probability that Isaiah would have agreed, had he
been asked, that Jesus of Nazareth was what he was talking about all
along, let's just get on with it, asking what the probability
of any individual being a god would be, ignoring all the metaphysical
leaps of faith and logic that would get us to an immanuel (literally
"god in man").
About
200 million people were alive in Biblical times,
so
the probability that any one of them was a god would be 1 in 200
million. Multiplying this by
1 in 660 billion gives us the
odds of god
being a single Jewish male named Jesus of
1 in 132 thousand million
billion or
1 in 132,000,000,000,000,000,000
1 in 1.32 x 1020.
There are other
specific claims made by Christianity, but these are the main ones. Each
additional condition's probability must be multiplied by the
probability of the
Jesus Hypothesis (JYMG), reducing it further.
So how likely is this? Consider that the odds of
winning a typical 6/49
lottery where 6
numbers are chosen from a range of 49 is
1 in 13,983,816. So
you are
roughly 10 trillion times as likely to win the lottery as you are to
correctly bet on a single god named Jesus spawned from a male god named
Yahweh (who in some sort of circular way was both father and son, but I
digress). You may like those odds; I don't.
If you point out that
1 in 132,000,000,000,000,000,000 is not technically zero, so I still have not disproven that God exists, he is male, alone, and named Jesus, then consider this. The next
time you fly a plane, remember that the
probability it will crash are
about
1 in 11 million. So if you have rock solid certainty in the
existence of a single male god named Jesus then
you should be 8.3 trillion
times as certain your plane will crash - please don't fly!
The modern Christian's insistence that we either prove the
non-existence of god or embrace the existence of a male god named Jesus
spawned from a Jewish god named Yahweh 2,000 years ago in Palestine
through angelic insemination (as thought those are the only two options) is an absurdly high bar we apply to nothing
else.
We take medications, fly planes, drive cars, cross bridges that
have a far, far, far higher probability of killing us without making the
ludicrously overconfident prediction that this particular flight or car
trip will kill us.
How did Mediterranean Monotheism become the default hypothesis? There
may very well be some kind of overarching intelligence or force or
spirit that moves the heavens in ways we can't understand, blah blah
blah, but this does not mean this spirit
has a penis, dresses in a toga, or takes sides in football games if
called upon with just the right earnest verbal formula (best mixed with
incense and candles).
"If You Don't Know There Are An Even Number of Stars... You Must Believe in Jesus"
OK, he didn't quite say it that way. This is what Mr. Plantingea said:
No one thinks there is good evidence for the proposition
that there are an even number of stars; but also, no one thinks the
right conclusion to draw is that there are an uneven number of stars.
The right conclusion would instead be agnosticism.
Where to begin...
We know stars exist. We can see them, measure them, even determine their chemical makeup. All people in all cultures of whatever faith or none
at all have seen and can count them.
We
know that there are far more than one star in the sky. With the naked
eye, you can see about 2,000 from anywhere you stand, about 6,000 if you
bothered to travel the planet and count them in all seasons and
latitudes.
We
also know that all things countable fall somewhere in the set of natural
numbers {1,2,3,4...} and that there is a 50% probability of any
natural number being even or odd.
We
know no such thing about gods. We cannot say with certainty that there
is a set of gods {Yahweh, Jesus, Zeus, Poseidon, Mars, Athena, Diana,
Thor, ...} and that the disproval of one ipso facto proves the other.
What
we do know is that if god exists, no two human beings have ever agreed
on what he looks like, whether she has feet, is really tall, can fly,
gets jealous, marries humans, starts wars, or makes volcanoes erupt.
The biggest
predictor of how you envision your god is where you live. Gravity, light, and heat
don't work that way. All cultures understand that you should avoid
cliffs, lightning, and fire because these are not abstract constructs
unseen by any mortal.
Take It Away, Al
I close with the words of perhaps one of the smartest atheists who ever lived:
I
don't try to imagine a personal god; it suffices to stand in awe at the
structure of the world, insofar as it allows our inadequate senses to
appreciate it...
I
do not believe in a personal god and I have never denied this but have
expressed it clearly... The idea of a personal god is quite alien to me
and seems even naïve.."
The
word God is for me nothing more than the expression and product of
human weaknesses, the Bible a collection of honorable, but still
primitive legends which are nevertheless pretty childish. No
interpretation, no matter how subtle, can (for me) change this.
For
me the Jewish religion like all other religions is an incarnation of
the most childish superstitions. And the Jewish people to whom I gladly
belong and with whose mentality I have a deep affinity have no different
quality for me than all other people. As far as my experience goes,
they are also no better than other human groups, although they are
protected from the worst cancers by a lack of power. Otherwise I cannot
see anything 'chosen' about them.
- Albert Einstein