Is the USA Facing An Epidemic of Islamic-Inspired Violence? Spoiler Alert: No.

Are We Facing An Epidemic of Islamic-Inspired Violence?   (And If So, Does Trump Have the Cure?)

12/10/15

Whenever I am repeatedly shocked or surprised by something, it's usually because my model of reality governing that particular something was deeply flawed.  

And so it is with Trump and his supporters.  I was wrong along with so many others in believing that his campaign would prove to be an entertaining but ultimately ephemeral sideshow.   I cheered when Huffington Post moved coverage of his campaign to the Entertainment section, saying that it wasn't serious politics.  

But Trump is still leading and by a widening margin.   The more sane, educated people are appalled, the more his followers are delighted.

So what gives?

I think it goes back to Tulips.  And the South Sea bubble.   And Pets.com, collateralized debt obligations, and home prices that could never fall.  

Never underestimate that madness of crowds.   When people get an infectious, incorrect idea in their heads, especially one that is emotionally provocative ("if you keep borrowing against your home equity, you will never have to really repay the debt since your home will always rise in value" or "the United States faces an epidemic of Muslim-inspired violence that only a prohibition of Islam will fix") it has to run its course.  It can't be reasoned away by pointy-headed people with their "facts" and "data" and "logic."  This time is different.  The old rules don't apply.  No rules really apply.  We should all embrace this new paradigm.  

And all new paradigms (which are really old ones in new clothes) need a new, charismatic leader, one who can channel all that collective disdain for the experts who all their life have always made the masses feel a little guilty for not doing their homework.  There isn't any need for homework anymore.  All that is needed is boldness!  

The Trump supporters interviewed here are really no different than stock investors buying on 10:1 margin in 1929 or bond traders selling insurance policies on tranches of crappy subprime mortgages in 2007 or those who thought Mitt Romney was a sure thing (this last bet wasn't off quite as wildly, but it's clear that Mitt Romney himself had never seriously considered the possibility that he might lose until the election returns showed that indeed he had.  

Trump is the new, bold leader of the latest bubble in popular thinking (which is somewhat redundant, since all bubbles require the dynamics of a frenzied crowd to grow and spread).  The assumptions of the bubble follow:  

  The United States is facing an unprecedented wave of terror attacks led by Islamically-inspired radicals.  

  The president of the United States, himself a Muslim, refuses to recognize this reality that any casual viewer of Fox & Friends knows to be true.

  The mainstream media (meaning anything but Fox or Christian fundamentalist radio or Rush or Sean) are conspiring with our Muslim president and perhaps the Muslim Brotherhood to keep Americans ignorant of the truth.

  Trump is not afraid to speak this politically-incorrect truth:  only by keeping Muslims out of this country or closely monitored once they are here can we ever hope to fight this epidemic of Islamic-inspired terrorism that poses an existentialist threat to our country.  

Distilled to its essence:  

  Muslims are terrorizing America.  

  Keep Muslims out or register those who are here and you will eliminate terror in America.  

  Only Trump has the vision to do this.  

  Vote for Trump!  

As in any bubble, there is a grain of truth.   There have been 4 terrorist attacks perpetrated by Muslims inspired by an Islamist ideology during the President Obama administration:  

Attack Death toll

Fort Hood 13

Boston Marathon bombing  3

Chattanooga  5

San Bernadino 14

Total 35

3 of these 4 attacks (32 of these 35 dead) were committed with legally-obtained firearms (the other was made possible thanks to firearms which covered the escape of one of the bombers).    

But the grain of truth is whipped up into complete, mass hysteria.   

35 dead represents the number of Americans killed every 9 hours and 20 minutes from non-Muslim-inspired gun violence.   

That means that about 5 Americans have died during the average year of President Obama's term 6.9 years in office from domestic Islamic terrorism.  

We could argue that this is 5 too many, but is it an epidemic?  

Well, 5 is about the average number of people who die ON THE ENTIRE PLANET from shark attacks.  

The average American is 30 times more likely to die from falling airplane parts than from a shark attack.  
Therefore, we are facing an epidemic of Islamist violence in the United States only if we are facing a far, far greater epidemic of falling airplane parts.   (Why are both parties so silent on THIS epidemic?  Should we not ban all flights just to be on the safe side "until we know everything" as Trump said of Muslim immigration?)

I won't go through the rate per capita and compare it to automobile deaths, the flu, or cardiovascular disease, but take my word for it:  it's not even a rounding error.  

Since the premise is false, the conclusion (that Trump's Islamophobic policies will stop this non-existent epidemic in its tracks) is also false, but let's go through a few numbers to humor his supporters.  

Numbers vary widely (the United States does not ask citizens to declare a religion when conducting a census or for any other official government business), but there are about 6.7 million Muslim Americans.    

This means the 6 total Islamically-inspired Muslim Americans represent literally 1 in a million American Muslims.  

How does this compare to domestic terrorism committed by non-Islamic non-Islamic terrorists?  

Since President Obama took office, here are those numbers  29 killed in 10 attacks.   (See Appendix below for a detailed list), or 4.2 Americans killed per year.  

So although it's true that Islamic-inspired terrorism has been about 20% greater (35 versus 29 killed) over this period, and that since Muslim Americans are only 2% of the population, this does represent a higher rate per capita than among non-Muslims, the numbers are still tiny in both cases.   There were dozens of plots to kill people for right wing religious or ideological reasons that were disrupted and Christian or anti-government terrorists seem to enjoy a degree of popular support in many regions of the country that no Muslim terrorist does, allowing them to seek refuge among collaborators in a way that Islamists can't.  

If Islamist terrorism is an epidemic, then non-Islamic terrorism must at least be a very bad outbreak.  

But of course neither is a significant killer of Americans.   33,000 Americans die in gun violence that is not politically-motivated.   How many?  About 33,000 a year  or 90 a day.  

So let's compare side-by-side:

Cause of death Average deaths per year

Islamist terrorism 5.1

non-Islamist terrorism 4.2

firearms    33,000   

           You are 6,471 times more likely to be killed by a plain old firearm discharge (homicide, murder, or accident) than by a politically-inspired one.  
And yes, you are 7,857 times more likely to be killed by homicide, murder, or accidents as by non-Islamic terrorism.   

You are 3,548 times more likely to be killed by non-terrorist gunshots as by all forms of terrorism combined.  

So why are we worried about terrorism but oblivious to firearm dangers such as the gun show loophole again?  

Now let's say that Trump's strategy works and the number of Islamist terrorism deaths drops to 0.  Let's further assume that his stoking of Islamophobic hatred doesn't stoke more non-Islamist terrorism.   How would this affect overall firearm deaths (which include terrorist deaths)?

Well, 33,000 per year would drop by 5.1 a year to 32,994.9.  However, since we really should have no more than 3 significant digits, this rounds off to … 33,000.    The net effect of Trump's policy would be zero since the problem he is trying to solve is so miniscule it's within the rounding error of the total firearm mortality data of which it's a part.  

Appendix:  List of Non-Muslim Terrorist Attacks in the United States since 2009 in which at least one person was killed.  

2009 May 31: Dr  George Tiller shot by an anti-abortion Christian extremist: 1 killed.

2009 June 10: United States Holocaust Memorial Museum shooting: 88-year-old James Wenneker von Brunn, a white supremacist and neo-Nazi, walked into the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C., shooting and mortally wounding Stephen Tyrone Johns, a security guard:  1 killed

2010 February 18: Austin suicide attack: Andrew Joseph Stack III flying his single engine plane flew into the Austin Texas IRS building killing himself and one IRS employee and injuring 13 others. 1

2012 August 5: Wisconsin Sikh temple shooting: Six people were killed and three others were injured, including a police officer who was tending to victims at a Sikh temple in Oak Creek, Wisconsin. The gunman, 40-year-old Wade Michael Page, killed himself after being shot by police  6
2013 November 1: 2013 Los Angeles International Airport shooting: Paul Anthony Ciancia entered the checkpoint at the Los Angeles International Airportand fired his rifle, killing one Transportation Security Administration officer and injuring six others. The motivation behind the attack was Paul's inspiration of the anti-government agenda, such as believing in the New World Order conspiracy theory, and stating that he "wanted to kill TSA" and described them as "pigs".   1

2014 April 13: Overland Park Jewish Community Center shooting: A pair of shootings committed by a lone gunman occurred at the Jewish Community Center of Greater Kansas City and Village Shalom, a Jewish retirement community, in Overland Park, Kansas. A total of three people died in the shootings. Frazier Glenn Miller, Jr., a neo-Nazi was arrested and charged with capital murder, first-degree murder, attempted first-degree murder, and aggravated assault.  3

2014 June 8: 2014 Las Vegas shootings: Two police officers and one civilian died in a shooting spree in the Las Vegas Valley committed by a couple, identified as Jerad and Amanda Miller, who espoused anti-government views and were reportedly inspired by the outcome of the Bundy standoff. 3

2014 September 16: Eric Matthew Frein described as a survivalist is alleged to have killed a Pennsylvania State trooper and critically wounded another at the Blooming Grove barracks. 1

2015 June 17: Charleston church shooting: a mass shooting took place at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in downtown Charleston, South Carolina..   Dylann Roof was arrested and later confessed that he committed the shooting in order to initiate a race war.  9

2015 November 27: 2015 Colorado Springs shootings: Robert L. Dear, armed with an assault-style rifle opened fire at a Colorado Springs Planned Parenthood. Two civilians and one police officer were killed, and four civilians and five police officers were wounded before the suspect surrendered. Dear told police "No more baby parts" after being taken into custody.  3

Let's say that Trump's fantasy of a Muslim-rein America were carried out and all Muslims were barred from entering the United States or rounded up an put into camps if they are already here.   (Again, this could never happen for legal, moral, and practical reasons, but for purposes of illustration, let's carry it out logically.)