Congressman Mike Pompeo, one of those junior far right Republicans who helped shut our government down, is predicting on his website (with a bit of relish) the "train wreck" that "Obamacare" will be.
Before taking a prediction seriously, it's a good idea to see how past predictions fared. Mike Pompeo's have been pretty bad.
In 2009, Pompeo was propelled into national office convinced that President Obama was ruining America and it was his job to turn things around. He spoke frequently about the dire consequences that would follow specifically from Obamacare (which of course was years away from being launched, but why let facts get in the way of a strongly held opinion?) and more generally from that dastardly, indecisive, apologetic new president we had just elected.
Pompeo made some specific predictions about what a continued Obama regime would do for Kansas and the world.
On 9/10/09, Pompeo said America needs to improve its health care system, but he lashed out at the government's involvement, saying "I've never seen something government gets involved in that reduced cost or made something more efficient." This is ironic, coming from someone who received a $250,000 federal education (for free) followed by 5 years as a federal employee (in the military), and who wanted at the time to continue serving this government he felt was so terrible.
He was particularly mad about an energy bill that had just passed that will return "like a bad movie," and be the largest tax hike in history "in the guise of environmental protection." By capping CO2 emissions, the bill would make domestic oil drilling nearly impossible. "What you'll see is jobs go away and food be imported from around the globe," he said.
So one speech, three predictions (he repeated these in other appearances, so it wasn't that he misspoke in a burst of enthusiasm - he really meant what he said):
1. Domestic oil drilling would drop (and presumable domestic fossil fuel production in general).
2. The United States would be become a net food importer.
3. Unemployment would rise as jobs would "go away".
Not a single prediction came true.
1. Under President Obama, domestic oil production quietly but consistently rose. At some point, the United States did something it had not for decades: it produced more oil and other fossil fuels than it consumed, becoming a net importer of energy.
2. The United States continues to be an agricultural powerhouse and strongly positive net exporter of food. We produce so much food we must pay our farmers not to or they will flood the market. American agriculture was a whopping $173 billion in 2012 (and that is only 1% of our enormous and growing economy).
3. Although job growth has been slower than in past recoveries, it has been positive. Pompeo got the direction and magnitude of job growth wrong. Unemployment, both nationally and in his state of Kansas, has fallen about 25% since he predicted the end of the economic world under an Obama administration. At 10% when he spoke, unemployment is now nationally about 7.5%. In Kansas, unemployment fell from 7.2% in 2009 to 5.5% recently (it bumped up a bit to 5.9% in August, 2013, perhaps because of Pompeo's party's sequester). In October, 2009, initial claims for unemployment in Kansas were as high as 22,815. By the most recent report (July, 2013), they had plunged 37% to 14,264.
So before you consider heeding someone's breathless predictions of failure, consider not just their motivation but their track record. Our economy and the Affordable Care Act may very well experience some rough patches ahead but it won't be because Pompeo predicted them and many things will continue to improve for Americans (which won't be because of a second term Kansas representative or any of other handful of far right Republicans whose idea of governing is shutting down the government they campaigned to be part of).
Notes
In 2009, Pompeo was propelled into national office convinced that President Obama was ruining America and it was his job to turn things around. He spoke frequently about the dire consequences that would follow specifically from Obamacare (which of course was years away from being launched, but why let facts get in the way of a strongly held opinion?) and more generally from that dastardly, indecisive, apologetic new president we had just elected.
Pompeo made some specific predictions about what a continued Obama regime would do for Kansas and the world.
On 9/10/09, Pompeo said America needs to improve its health care system, but he lashed out at the government's involvement, saying "I've never seen something government gets involved in that reduced cost or made something more efficient." This is ironic, coming from someone who received a $250,000 federal education (for free) followed by 5 years as a federal employee (in the military), and who wanted at the time to continue serving this government he felt was so terrible.
He was particularly mad about an energy bill that had just passed that will return "like a bad movie," and be the largest tax hike in history "in the guise of environmental protection." By capping CO2 emissions, the bill would make domestic oil drilling nearly impossible. "What you'll see is jobs go away and food be imported from around the globe," he said.
So one speech, three predictions (he repeated these in other appearances, so it wasn't that he misspoke in a burst of enthusiasm - he really meant what he said):
1. Domestic oil drilling would drop (and presumable domestic fossil fuel production in general).
2. The United States would be become a net food importer.
3. Unemployment would rise as jobs would "go away".
Not a single prediction came true.
1. Under President Obama, domestic oil production quietly but consistently rose. At some point, the United States did something it had not for decades: it produced more oil and other fossil fuels than it consumed, becoming a net importer of energy.
2. The United States continues to be an agricultural powerhouse and strongly positive net exporter of food. We produce so much food we must pay our farmers not to or they will flood the market. American agriculture was a whopping $173 billion in 2012 (and that is only 1% of our enormous and growing economy).
3. Although job growth has been slower than in past recoveries, it has been positive. Pompeo got the direction and magnitude of job growth wrong. Unemployment, both nationally and in his state of Kansas, has fallen about 25% since he predicted the end of the economic world under an Obama administration. At 10% when he spoke, unemployment is now nationally about 7.5%. In Kansas, unemployment fell from 7.2% in 2009 to 5.5% recently (it bumped up a bit to 5.9% in August, 2013, perhaps because of Pompeo's party's sequester). In October, 2009, initial claims for unemployment in Kansas were as high as 22,815. By the most recent report (July, 2013), they had plunged 37% to 14,264.
So before you consider heeding someone's breathless predictions of failure, consider not just their motivation but their track record. Our economy and the Affordable Care Act may very well experience some rough patches ahead but it won't be because Pompeo predicted them and many things will continue to improve for Americans (which won't be because of a second term Kansas representative or any of other handful of far right Republicans whose idea of governing is shutting down the government they campaigned to be part of).
Notes
Unemployment in Kansas when Pompeo spoke was
7.2%
in 2009; it fell to
5.5%
in 2013 before recently climbing a bit to 5.9% (August, 2013)
Civilian
labor force = 1,485,042 as of 10/3/2013
Then:
There were 22,815 initial claims for
unemployment benefits in October 2009, up from 17,501 initial claims for
September and up from 17,296 in October 2008.
The October 2009
unemployment rate was 6.4 percent, down from 6.8 percent in September and
up from 4.3 percent in October 2008.
Now:
14,264
initial claims for unemployment benefits in July, 2013.
37% lower than when Pompeo predicted that Kansas under an Obama regime
would suffer economically
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