Monday, November 12, 2012

To my Republican Christian friend who posted the following right wing Christian link denouncing the 2012 electorate

To my Republican Christian friend who posted the following link:

The Real Battle Begins

The 2012 election reveals a sea change in the long-term direction of this nation. We are no longer guided by our historic values, but steaming full speed into darkness without concern for the rocks ahead...


Chuck Bentley, the blogger you cite here is long on speculation and short on actual facts (and in some cases a good editor).  He implies that anyone who voted Democratic must have done so because of "sour grapes" or emotion.  As someone who voted against my economic interests but on core values, I know I am not alone.  You may not agree with us, but pretending to read the minds of half of Americans who cast votes (and many more who didn't) smacks of sore losing.  
He claims that voters "endorsed the right of women to publicly funded birth-control and abortion."  This is incorrect on two counts.  Publicly-funded birth control (no hyphen needed) has always been available.  The ACA mandate the bishops council created such a public row about involved PRIVATE plans and whether they should be compelled to waive copayments on contraception (what is forgotten in all this breathless "war on religion" talk is that as it turns out, no, they don't).  No public funds support abortion (per the Hyde Amendment).  
He claims that President Obama is "running up the largest national deficit in our history."  This is incorrect.  President Obama's deficit is uncomfortably high, as was his predecessor's, but it has come down, not up.  It is not unprecedented.  Bentley maybe confusing debt and deficit (a common mistake); in nominal dollars, the debt is unprecedented, but in terms of GDP it is not, and is entirely accounted for by a decade of Bush tax cuts and two wars.  All three will be ended soon.  At any rate, Congress, not the president, controls the purse strings.  Last time I checked, the House was in Republican hands.
He claims that "Americans who are financially successful should be demonized and that their wealth be redistributed, turning the sin of envy into public policy."  Well, if this was a sin, Jesus was guilty of it too.  What he proposed was redistribution; what President Obama proposed was raising top marginal tax rates 3% to levels below where they were under Clinton.  It is bearing false witness to claim this is redistribution.  No one is demonizing people for being rich, but those who are rich, materialistic, and unwilling to pay their fair share of taxes should be called out.   Their behavior most certainly is not Christian.  
He falsely claims that the electorate has accepted "massive increases in government welfare as a form of compassion and care for the poor" and that the Bible teaches that "compassion and generosity are a personal responsibility that cannot be shunted off on the government."  I would be very curious to see that passage but it sounds like rationalization to me.  If "personal responsibility" sufficed, then there would be no hungry, poor, or homeless - no one is preventing Christians or people of any faith from sharing all that they have with them as Jesus commanded, but it does not seem any are doing that.  And why should they when their house needs a 22 car garage?
In the area of healthcare, one area I have direct extensive experience, he is as wrong as he could be when he claims that we are "virtually guaranteed" to destroy ... the finest health care system in the world."  First, our health care system is not globally ranked #1, not by a long shot, except in one category:  spending.  We spend about 15.6% of GDP on healthcare, more than any other country in the world but fail (so far) to cover all of our citizens.  Tens of thousands of Americans die for want of health insurance.   The United States is the only developed country where bankruptcy - losing everything you own - is the price you pay simply because you got sick.  I have seen it happen so many times that it really burns me up when someone such as Bentley talks about a reality that does not exist, ruined by a proposal no one made.  The ACA is an all-private deal except for some badly needed expansion of Medicaid.  And by the way, Medicare, with its 1.8% administrative overhead,is far more efficient than private plans, which often have overheads as high as 15-25%, much of it due to advertising and executive compensation.  And if the ACA were ruining healthcare, why are private insurers up so much since the law was passed?
And before condemning the Affordable Care Act as some dastardly Democratic plot to ruin America, let's not forget that it was essentially a Republican invention, later disowned when championed by an African American president.  Republicans years ago proposed such an idea in retort to Clinton's attempted healthcare reform, and - irony of ironies! - the man President Obama just defeated successfully implemented a state pilot of the program in Massachusetts (which now enjoys the lowest rate of uninsured citizens in the country).
He blames the president apparently for the votes of millions of Americans in support of marriage equality. (He incorrectly states that only two states did so - I believe the number was four.)
He bemoans the decriminalization of marijuana, claiming that cannabis takes a "tremendous toll" on "those poor souls who struggle to be free from its addictive power." As a psychiatrist, I think most people would be better off not seeking to alter themselves with recreational drugs, but alcohol and nicotine have a far higher death toll and are far more addictive than cannabis. This is not to say it's a good idea to welcome another legal drug into the mix, but countries that have de facto or de jure decriminalized marijuana have not seen increases in their overall rate of substance abuse or crime. If Bentley believes that no Americans use marijuana because it is illegal, I have news for him. The question is whether police have better things to do than hunt down nonviolent citizens whose only crime is possessing small quantities of a substance he does not like. I think they do.
On concrete, disprovable facts, the blogger continues to get it wrong. He claims that "13 million fewer Americans voted in the 2012 Presidential race than turned out in 2008." Actually,120,871,984 voted in 2012. 129,391,711 voted in 2008. The difference is currently 8,519,727, not 13 million. His figure is 152% the actual number!
But it should encourage him to note that more evangelical Christians voted in 2012 than in 2004; they were just swamped by everyone else, most of whom disagreed with them. That's democracy. And if everyone voted, he would be even more unhappy.
He claims that those who showed up to vote were "interest groups rallied by their self-interest." Fascinating. I voted against my self-interest and represent no interest group.
He compares debt reduction, immigration reform, a fairer tax code, and poverty reduction to "bread and circuses" repeating the discredited elderly- and veteran-bashing 47% remarks of Mitt Romney: "About half of America does not pay taxes, yet can vote to take more from others." First of all, all Americans pay some form of taxes, many of which are embedded in every product we buy. The majority of those in the 47% either paid income taxes and social security over their working lives, or are paying at least social security now. Calling disabled veterans or the working poor moochers because they do not pay federal income taxes today is rather callous. And isolating out a very particular tax and calling it "taxes" is disingenuous.
He states that "politicians are elected promising to take from those who do not support them to give more to those who do." This is callous and cynical (and ignores the fact that in 2008 Wall Street gave more to President Obama than to McCain). There simply are not enough Americans who are recipients of entitlement programs other than Social Security or Veterans benefits (the former of which was paid into by today's recipients when they were working) to make a decisive voting block. The vast majority of those who voted for President Obama work, many at 2 or 3 jobs to make ends meet. To say they are looking for a handout is insulting and frankly unchristian.
"We either see man as fallen and sinful in need of laws to enforce standards of moral conduct, justice and freedom or we see man as good and capable of self-governance without standards that restrain or restrict individual sinful desires," he states. So why then does he oppose efforts to enforce standards of moral conduct such as paying one's fair share of taxes, not cheating on one's tax return, not stealing the productivity surges of one's workers by paying them no more than when they were far less productive, or protecting miners from greedy mine owners who tamper with carbon monoxide detectors? Why does he believe "self-governance" will be any more successful with charitable giving, regulation of Wall Street (greed, last time I checked, was a sin), or carbon emissions than in other spheres?
He claims most Americans have "vastly differing worldviews" than he does, but is this really the case? Do we really disagree about the moral imperative to work hard, feed our children, fund our government, and be kind and compassionate to each other? I doubt the blogger has ever taken estrogen-progesterone or been confronted with an unintended pregnancy or (I am assuming from his homophobic slant) wanted to have to right to visit a dying life partner who happens to be of the same sex, so these are - for him - marginal issues that do not personally affect him. The ones that do, we mostly agree on. As to whether you believe in god or capitalize his pronouns or call him Jesus or Yahweh or Zeus, those are not world views but metaphysical views, speculations beyond the here and now that demands action from us.
He seems confused about the difference between losing an election and losing a war. We have a long and hallowed tradition of peaceful transfer of power in this country. His call to "battle" and his condemnation of "peace" as a "sin" (an idea I would imagine the pacifist Jesus would condemn) is upsetting. I hope he is only being metaphorical, but these sorts of violent metaphors may encourage others to engage in horrific acts of violence.
He writes that "Government in a democracy is merely a reflection of the desires of the people and their choices for leadership." Fair enough. So the people desire something and have chosen someone different from what he would choose. He is welcome to attempt to exhort people to agree with him but at present they don't. It's not his job to tell the rest of us what sort of culture or leadership we should choose. He claims that "the real solution to America’s problems is the return of the common denominator that once united a diverse people." Given the rich diversity of religious and political opinions that shaped this country, I don't think such a unity ever existed. I hope it never does because at that point we will become a theocracy. America's richness is that it doesn't much care what you think or believe, but it very much welcomes what you can do.
The idea of a "culture with common values and biblical principles" is oxymoronic since the bible is not shared by all Americans as an authoritative text and as John Adams and George Washington once wrote, the United States is "in no way a Christian nation." We are a secular republic but everyone is free to believe or not in god as they choose.
"We must work to rebuild our country as one nation under God" perhaps unaware that that phrase (under god) was inserted during the McCarthy era. For most of our history we were not "under god" and stumbled along OK. The Greatest Generation did not say "under god" when they said the pledge of allegiance each morning (if they did at all) but somehow that didn't stop them from storming beaches at Normandy and Iwo Jima.
"The GOP lost the election, but GOD did not," he says, but GOD was not on the ballot I cast.
He talks about "The Lion of Judah" which "has been about redeeming people from worldly philosophies since they chose to eat from the Tree of the Knowledge of Good and Evil." He is mixing up some biblical allegories here; I don't think Adam and Eve were doing all that much philosophizing (but perhaps they should have). And why is his "worldly philosophy" so superior to all the other competing Axial Ages philosophies or the much older traditions of Buddhism and Judaism that preceded Christianity?  Simply claiming that a philosophy purports to represent all truth, god, etc., does not make it so.
"Let us arm ourselves with the ultimate weapons of love and truth and let’s go forth and boldly engage in the battle for hearts and minds." Fair enough, but it seems that whole "love and truth" part is a necessary component. You do not express "love" for an electorate you dismiss as sinful and self-serving and beholden to (or part of) an interest group. You do not show a dedication to "truth" if you get so many disprovable facts wrong (from what the ACA mandates to how many people voted).
Interestingly, after condemning self-serving interest groups, he asks for money. "Crown," he says, needs "your financial support" among other things. There is nothing wrong with this per se - all worldly philosophies, even those claiming to have a monopoly on extraterrestrial reality, need to pay the bills - but it seems to contradict everything he said about "the biblical admonishment to work as unto God for your resources, if physically able." Is he physically able? Than according to his worldview he should not ask for other people's money.


Friday, November 9, 2012

Open letter to Mr. Huckabee on the recent election

Dear Mr. Huckabee, 

You believe that the defeat of your party in the most recent election must be evidence that "our country has slipped into a deeper state of dependence on government than I wanted to believe."  I am confused as to how an election victory for one party can have anything to do with our "dependence on government" unless of course you believe that anyone who votes for a black man must ipso facto be either of color, dependent on government, or both.  Since most of those who are dependent on government - through programs from social security and Medicare to Medicaid to veterans benefits to food stamps - are white, and many of them voted for Mitt Romney, how does this support your thesis?  Do you really believe, as your colleague at Fox News Bill O'Reilly claims, that minorities are looking for handouts from their government, like children looking for free candy?  What evidence do you have from exit polls or other demographic data do you have that this is the case?  

As a man well-versed in Biblical allegories, you compare your national government to "Goliath."  Since Goliath was a giant individual, not a giant government, is this not an odd comparison?  Also, in the Biblical contest between David and Goliath, David, not Goliath, won.  If you are trying to make the case that Mitt Romney was trying to slay what you call the "Goliath of government", why did he lose?  Since the Old Testament story is an attempt to show that god favored David even over a giant, doesn't the latest electoral outcome say exactly the opposite - that god must (at least this election cycle) favor what you see as a giant government?  Or perhaps Mitt just wasn't up to the role of playing David. 
Of course, for any of this to make sense, President Obama must have been responsible for runaway growth of this "Goliath" of a government. As it turns out, most of the growth in government came from his predecessors, particularly the last one, and only two presidents since Eisenhower have had lower rates of government growth than President Obama. 

You go on to claim that our "real problems are not political, but spiritual."  Do you really believe that those flooded out of their homes, men, women and children of all faiths, would agree with you?   Do you think FEMA should be put in charge of setting up places of prayer rather than distribution shelters for food and shelter (through cash vouchers)?  Do the one out of five American children in poverty many of whom have to skip at least one meal a day and go hungry - many who belong to devout families - really need spiritual fulfillment more than food in their bellies?  And why can't they have both?  Since both campaigns generally agreed on the problems facing our nation from the effects of the Great Recession to foreign policy difficulties abroad, what puts you in a position to be able to second guess both, identifying "real problems" that were evident to neither Obama nor Romney?  Since Romney never offered a spiritual solution for what ails us, how would voting for him have solved these "real problems" you believe actually face us? As you admit, "both parties have failed to acknowledge that" (meaning agree with you).
You claim that "Democrats have not wanted to even acknowledge the need for God in our public institutions" to which I must respond that you have not even wanted to acknowledge the need not to split infinitives.  

But I digress.  In virtually every public address, President Obama, a Christian, has acknowledged god in some form and has led prayers during time of national tragedy.  At no time has he moved to strip religious language from the Pledge of Allegience, for example, even though it was inserted in 1954 during the McCarthyist era.  He has not challenged any courthouse displaying the 10 Commandments, and has gone out of his way to please the bishops lobbying against having to implement healthcare reform, offering them multiple exceptions that they have publicly and loudly denounced through press conferences (rather than negotiating in good faith). 

You further claim that Republican leadership mentions god not to out of humility but only selectively, such as in the unquestioning, unconditional support of the current right-wing Government of Israel, which you describe as a "badge of courage."  I can agree with the absence of humility part, but how are Republicans behaving like lambs on the issues of "life and marriage"?  As I recall, they quite vocally opposed abortion prohibition even in the case of rape or incest and the life of the mother (which they believe is never endangered by pregnancy, something that many obstetricians would be curious to hear), and as recently as a week ago, Paul Ryan was telling evangelical Christians that President Obama was waging a "war on religion." The Republican party even went so far as to claim that conception through rape is god's will and that in the case of "legitimate" rape a woman's body has a way to "shut that whole thing down."  Is this lamb-like behavior?  

Regarding the Lion of Judah, his mention in the Bible is not associated with a war on abortion or gay marriage, none of which are really mentioned in the Bible at all.  In your Christian tradition, the Lion of Judah has come to represent Jesus who is allegedly (according to one Biblical version, contradicted by another) from the tribe of Judah.  In Revelation 5:5, this lion makes a cameo appearance:  
And one of the elders saith unto me, Weep not: behold, the Lion of the tribe of Judah, the Root of David, hath prevailed to open the book, and to loose the seven seals thereof.  
Again, loosening seals is not very violent and has nothing to do with gay marriage.  Even the version of the Lion of Judah that entered pop culture through Aslan in C. S. Lewis's Chronicles of Narnia does not rant against marriage equality or in vitro fertalization or stem cell research, as you seem to imply he should. 

You suggest the Republican party should "gear up and get ready for the next battle."  What battle?  We transfer power peacefully in this country via ballots, not bullets.  Are you advocating a coup?  And if you just accused the GOP candidates of being lambs rather than lions, why do you write next battle?  You just said they didn't really fight for what you call our "real problems."  I am confused. 

You claim that the Republicans are a "party of principle" but what principle are you referring to?  Do you not mean principal - it's accumulation and freedom from taxation?   Are you implying that the Democratic party is not a party of principle?  Or could it just be that we share many principles, but prioritize them differently, or that we see different means of achieving the same ends from alleviating poverty, providing healthcare to all citizens, ending war and capital punishment, and other Christian mandates?   Is it really your role, as a mortal among mortals, to be claiming that yours is the party of god and that any Christians who vote for President Obama would go to hell as you did prior to the election?

After bemoaning how the Republican party didn't mention god enough or in the right way, you then claim that they should not "stop believing what we believe" but rather "do a better job of doing what we're supposed to do."  Circularity aside, that claim seems to negate everything you said earlier.  

Finally, you claim that [only by Republicans] "attract[ing] voters and win[ning] elections" can you "save America from herself." Why are you so mistrustful of America that you feel she is inherently self-destructive and needs to be saved?  And do you honestly believe that this salvation can only come from the Republican party?  Since America is not a fixed entity, but a work in progress and a democratic one at that, who says America has to agree with you?  Apparently "she" doesn't.  You seem to confuse losing an election with losing a great Biblical battle between good and evil.  Isn't this a tad grandiose?

One thing the Bible does warn us against is idol worship.  When agreement with our own ideas becomes a litmus test for godliness and righteousness, are you not really saying "my will" rather than "thy will" be done? And if so, how is this compatible with the humility of a good Christian?


Sincerely,


Mike Victor


Appendix:

Growth of government:
After the spending burst of 2009, Mr. Obama, constrained by Congress and aided by repayments of bank and auto bailouts, increased spending just 0.5 percent a year over the next three fiscal years when adjusted for inflation; only two other three-year periods since Eisenhower had lower spending growth. - New York Times


Full O'Reilly and related quotations:

– BILL O’REILLY: “The white establishment is now the minority. And the voters, many of them, feel that the economic system is stacked against them and they want stuff. You are going to see a tremendous Hispanic vote for President Obama. Overwhelming black vote for President Obama. And women will probably break President Obama’s way. People feel that they are entitled to things and which candidate, between the two, is going to give them things?” [Fox News, 11/6/2012]
– RUSH LIMBAUGH: “It’s just very difficult to beat Santa Claus. It is practically impossible to beat Santa Claus. People are not going to vote against Santa Clause especially if the alternative is being your own Santa Claus. [The Rush Limbaugh Show, 11/7/2012]
– SEAN HANNITY: “One other thing that we need to come to terms with as a result of last night. What appears to have happened is that the liberal welfare state in this country has now grown. More and more Americans have become dependent on that welfare state. As they have, they have found themselves siding with the party of government.” [Fox News, 11/7/2012]
– STUART VARNEY: “With Obama’s victory, the takers have taken over. The makers are clearly in the minority.” [Fox Business, 11/7/2012]




Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Twelve Things the Republican Party might learn from this election.


Twelve Things the Republican Party might learn from this election



To my Republican friends:  I know what you are feeling right now.  We went through it in 2004.  We survived and you will too.
But here's the thing.   Buried in that campaign are some nuggets of true wisdom.  As Ben Franklin once said, That which hurts instructs.  Perhaps this isn't the best teaching moment and I really do not write this in a spirit of gloating (it was a close, painfully expensive election after all). I simply hope that we can stop the food fight, grow up, roll up our sleeves and work together as adults.
In that spirit, I offer you twelve things Republicans might learn from this election.

Don't lie.  It worked with Iraq, it worked (to a certain extent) with the intelligence failures leading to 9-11, but I really do think the American people have a learning curve.   Don't talk about Jeep moving jobs to China when the CEOs of those companies have internet connections and are bound to hear those whoppers sooner or later.   Don't say the economy is going in the wrong direction when you know damn well that a.) it was in freefall when President Obama took office and b.) it may not be moving as FAST as you like, but the DIRECTION has been UP since it bottomed in 2009.  Don't talk about a War on Religion (see below) that does not exist.

Don't tell the truth.  I know this sounds contradictory, but if you are going to run on a platform by the 1% for the 1% don't ever actually say that out loud, especially if someone might be recording you.  If you do lie, lie consistently, otherwise the times you do tell the truth, we will discover not just the fact that you were lying all along but the complete disdain you have for most Americans, including soldiers, veterans, retirees, the poor and disabled.  In an age of tiny cameras and YouTube there are no closed doors anymore.  To solve this problem, how about writing a platform and running a candidate that honestly represents all Americans?  It would end up being a lot easier since you don't have to keep track of what version of Romney you are supposed to be today.

Don't make up goofy stuff about the president.  If you don't like his policies, his values, or even the color of his skin (I'm looking at you, Glenn), just say so.  People might even forgive you for saying that you are harboring a little racism even in 2012, but it just sounds weird to have Donald Trump out there fronting your latest conspiracy about his birth certificate or college transcripts or a black power transformative agenda rooted in Kenyan anticolonialism (Newt).  Just say it:  he does not look like your image of a president which is closer to George W. Bush on a circling aircraft carrier in a custom made flight suit in front of a Mission Accomplished banner.  That sort of thing.

Stop attacking women.  They make up half the electorate and they vote.  Perhaps your staff didn't tell you that, but most women, even those who might agree that abortion rights should be restricted a bit here and there, do not like the idea of having men in government coming up with all sorts of nutty ideas about how they are going to force rape victims to get a vaginal ultrasound probe that doctors say they don't need and women say they don't want.  And for god's sake drop the whole contraception thing.  It's weird.  That was settled law a century ago and the science hasn't changed all that much.

Don't misrepresent science.  If you don't think oil companies and coal companies who contribute mightily to your campaigns would be as profitable if they were regulated a bit more or had to compete with a thriving solar or wind power industry, just say so.   Some Americans might forgive you.  But don't make jokes about not intending to do anything about rising sea levels because those rising sea levels might rise in a major, election-changing way days before the election.  American education might not be as strong as it should be in this area, but most Americans trust NASA, the National Institute of Health, the CDC, and scientists in general far more than they trust lawyers in suits writing laws saying that climate change doesn't exist (or that abortion causes breast cancer or never is needed to save the life of the mother).

Don't talk about rape except to say how you would prevent it.  Rape is not funny and there is no way to put it in a cute little evangelical package and use it as a vehicle to sell your anti-abortion stance to the American people.  Most (but not all) rape victims are women and you are not going to get any mileage with them parading men in front of the cameras telling them how their bodies have way to "shut that whole thing down" (if it's "legitimate" of course) or how it's a gift from god (yes, you were referring to the baby, not the rape, but no rape, no baby).  It's your weakest argument against abortion and take my advice - just don't go there.  Ever.

Vet your candidate.  If you demand to see all of his tax returns before he runs, guess what - the American people are going to want to also.  Maybe his tax returns are as boring as his anecdotes about his wife falling on her rump on a stage once (true story), but the more they are withheld and the more Mrs. Romney said she had told "you people" all we needed to know, the more our imaginations went to work.  It's like an obscenity.  Just say the word.  Bleeping it out only makes our mind fill in the blanks with all sorts of dastardly things that might not even be there.  And if they are... well, perhaps the GOP should run another candidate with less dirt.

Stop talking about a war on religion.   Wars involve killing people.  Wars on religion often involve rounding people up, putting them in ghettos or camps, then killing them.   Asking religiously-affiliated universities and hospitals (that receive massive amount of federal funds) to play by the same level, federally-mandated playing field as everyone else is not the same as the Holocaust or the Crusades.  No one is forcing bishops to use contraception, but if they offer their employees healthcare, that plan has to include copayment-free access to them.

If you are running on a platform that is essentially that of President Bush, at least have the decency to invite him to campaign and to the Convention.   It's hard to sell another package of tax cuts and a more muscular foreign policy (does this mean another war?) to the American people without explaining why this would be less disastrous than the first time we tried that.  And who better to explain the nuances of how a Romney first term would really be a Bush third term, than W himself?  Admittedly he is not the most articulate of spokesmen, and probably has an awful lot of brush to clear on his ranch, but he, like Romney before the first debate, can be coached.  Not having him even attend, much less speak at a Convention that highlights and amplifies all of his policies is just plain weird.  His silence on the campaign trail was palpable.

Don't try to buy an election - it's a waste of money.  You guys spent billions (and so did the Democrats admittedly) raising limitless corporate donations, but even Karl Rove and the Koch brothers were slapped down this cycle.  It doesn't mean you can't dust yourself off and figure out a way to come roaring back in 2 or 4 years, but you need more than money.  You also need honesty, a commitment to reality as the rest of us know it (facts and stuff), and a plan that is different than the one that got us in the mess you criticize President Obama for not having fixed fast enough.  It still comes down to one citizen, one vote, and more of us are voting than ever before.  And most of us don't watch Fox.

Don't exploit a terrorist attack for political gain.  All right, admittedly it worked for you in 2004 when you almost literally ran on the legacy of 9-11 (a masterful twist since this happened on your watch).  But don't try to create a conspiracy over the tragic deaths of 4 Americans abroad when you guys ran an election on your failure to prevent the deaths of almost 3,000 Americans.   You can't have it both ways, as much as you would like to.  And when Americans die abroad, please have the decency to keep your "unraveling" theories to yourself.  It's mean-spirited and at least one of the victim's relatives asked you to stop.

Finally:  Leave Big Bird out of this.  He may have a funny voice but he is like ten feet tall and is a hell of a lot more popular than your candidate.



And before you get out your tea bags and assault rifles and orthographically-challenged signs demanding your country back (again), please consider how that turned out the first time.  We got healthcare done anyway, the Supreme Court upheld it, and - what do you know? - President Obama is still your Commander-in-Chief.  The American people chose him not once but twice.

Be adults.  Let's work together on real problems.  God knows we have enough to solve.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

What if Every American Voted and Every Vote Were Counted?

What if Every American Voted and Every Vote Were Counted?
Answer:  few Republicans would win the presidency.

Most Americans don't realize it, but we live in a far more Democratic country than the national polling figures (which survey likely voters) would have you believe.   Using some recent population and voting data and making a few simplistic assumptions, it's clear that the GOP's efforts to limit franchise (suppress the vote) reflect a reality-based fear of what would happen if all Americans could vote and all votes were counted.  

The first question is what proportion of Americans fall into each ethnic group which is a much harder question to answer since so many Americans identify more than one race. 



Race / EthnicityNumberPercentage of
U.S. population
Americans308,745,538100.0 %
White or European American223,553,26572.4 %
Black or African American38,929,31912.6 %
Asian14,674,2524.8 %
Hispanic or Latino50,477,59416.4 %


To simplify, I adjusted the number of Latinos downward to make the percentage equal 100%, I came up with the following based on 2010 Census data.  This is not entirely unjustified since those identifying as Hispanic or Latino are also far more likely to identify as also belonging to another group. Note that this understates how much Republicans would lose in a demographically balanced contest since I am reducing a group that votes Democratic by 2:1:


Race / EthnicityNumberPercentage of
U.S. population
Americans308,745,538100.0 %
White or European American223,553,26572.4 %
Black or African American38,929,31912.6 %
Asian14,674,252 4.8 %
Hispanic or Latino31,588,702*10.2%*


 *truncated

The second question is that although not all members of each group are of age to vote or legally able to vote (another issue altogether), what would happen if the proportion of voters falling in a certain racial group equals the proportion in the population?   This assumption would not be true for those groups with very high proportions of under-18 although with time, ceteris paribus, the young cohorts will eventually be of legal voting age.  

A critical assumption is that each group votes roughly in proportion to its most recent race-specific party preference (to keep the number of columns to a minimum, I will report only Democratic affiliation and ignore (sorry) independents or third parties that have fewer than 5% of the vote in recent elections):  


Race / Ethnicity% of votes cast for Democratic candidates by group
White or European American45% **
Black or African American95%
Asian60% *
Hispanic or Latino67%

   ** 45% Democratic, 55% Republican is a longer term historical white vote split; the ugly reality is that the recent 39% : 61% split in 2012 exit polls seems a function of racism of white voters against an African American presidential candidate, a bias that Republicans cannot count on in future elections. 

- sources:  2008 exit polls, also mypolitikal.com, NPR
 
Now it should be pretty easy to calculate what proportion of the overall electorate would vote Democratic if all Americans voted in proportion to their numbers and preferences:


% of each group voting Democrat (as a % of all votes cast):
All Americans: 54.26%
White or European American 32.58%
Black or African American 11.97
Asian    2.88
Hispanic or Latino    6.83


In other words, each presidential contest should result in over 54.3% of the electorate voting for the Democratic candidate versus 45.7% voting Republican.   By comparison, President Obama won the 2008 election with 52.9% of the popular vote.  (See below for some more election outcomes.)  Had he won with the actual demographically-predicted vote, he would have won by a margin of 11,034,525 votes instead of the actual 9,522,083 vote victory.  The reassuring thing about 2008, however, is that far more African Americans and other traditionally underrepresented voting groups cast ballots, bringing the 52.9% closer to the 54.3% ideal.

But these numbers should worry the GOP since in order to win a national contest, they must continue to have whites vote and have their votes counted more proportionally than any other racial group.  If you crunch the numbers, for Republicans to win, white voters must make up 87.4% of the ballots cast and counted (120.7% of their actual 72% demographic makeup), and that would only allow them to squeak by with a 50.1% to 49.9% victory. And if current demographic trends continue, the situation will only become more challenging as white voters drop as a proportion of the population.

So don't be surprised if you see two parallel goals continuing and intensifying in the GOP: 
- appeal to more white voters especially with racist overtones ("food stamp president" and all the Birtherism nonsense come to mind); and 
- suppress the non-white vote by measures designed to make it more difficult for African Americans in particular to cast their votes and have them counted (voter ID laws, racially charged redistricting, shutting down early voting, and cutting budgets for polling places (which disproportionately affect already under-served African American polling sites).


Other historical election percentage outcomes
Bush won in 2004 with 50.7% of the vote and in 2000 lost the popular vote, 47.9% to 48.4%.  
The last time a presidential candidate won with more than 54.3% of the popular vote was in 1984, when Reagan carried 58.8% of the vote (in 1980, however, he won a more modest 50.7% of the vote) or 1972 when Nixon won 60.7% of the vote.  
No one in recent memory topped Lyndon B. Johnson's 61.1% victory in 1964, however.  Even Eisenhower won only 57.4% in 1956.  

Monday, November 5, 2012

Ryan on President Obama's war on religion 11-05-2012

Ryan claimed that Obama's vision was
a path that grows government, restricts freedom and liberty and compromises those ... Judeo-Christian, Western civilization values that made us a great and exceptional nation in the first place. 
Actually, the values that our country was founded on were secular Enlightenment ideals, a reaction to the religious fanaticism that had torn Europe apart in the centuries before. It's perhaps a geographical quibble but Judaism and its offshoot Christianity are more Eastern than Western.   Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, the Stoics, Epicureans, and Pythagoreans can all correctly be described as Western but they were suppressed or destroyed when Mediterranean Monotheism was imported and imposed upon the West in the form of Christianity.  What the United States achieved it achieved in spite of not because of religious zealots which the founders wisely protected us from.

Ryan went on to say "President Obama used his health care plan to declare war on religion, forcing religious institutions to go against their faith" and said that he believed the contraception clause was the worst part of Obamacare which represents a "threat to our religious freedom."

This is a very strange position which ignores the reality that President Obama bent over backwards to appease religious lobbyists, offering them a means of opting out of the contraception requirement, something Ryan and other right wing religious advocates always seem to forget.  It seems Ryan is far more interested in a fight than in solving a problem - how to offer women of all faiths the full gamut of healthcare options available to women who don't work for religiously affiliated corporations without upsetting some of the men running those corporations, men who allege that denying women copayment-free access to contraception and IVF is a form of religious expression.  

It's also odd that Ryan who repeatedly and loudly describes himself as pro-life feels that the most offensive thing about a healthcare reform is being forced to offer contraceptions without copayment, even if aborting that reform would help perpetuate the status quo in which one American dies every twenty minutes for want of health insurance.   Remember we are not talking about abortion or euthanasia or capital punishment over which intelligent adults disagree but contraception - a settled issue since 1918 and something used by 99% of Catholic women to time their births or treat a host of other conditions from uterine fibroids to severe PMS to acne.

At any rate, talk of war is as dishonest as it is deliberately inflammatory.  Wars involve killing people, seizing real estate, violence, and shock effect. Anyone who has experienced actual war should be offended by this use of martial metaphors to score cheap points in an argument that is essentially a question of accounting, actuarial risks and benefits, and access to healthcare.

Dear Mr. Ryan, THIS is a war on religion...



Dear Mr. Ryan,


You accused President Obama of launching a "war on religion" through the contraception requirement of the Affordable Care Act...
Let us be clear...

This is a war on religion:


This is not:  


This isn't either:  


Nor is this:


You may disagree with the Institute of Medicine.
You may disagree with President Obama's decision to listen to doctors instead of these men:


… but that doesn't make it a war on religion.  He has not sought guidance from horoscopes either but that does not mean he has declared a War on Astrology.  


So let's stop the war talk.  Wars kill people.



Health care reform does not.  
Thank you very much.

Mike Victor

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